Bournemouth1 - 1Aston Villa
BournemouthWhy did AI enter 2 times at 15', 66' — and still finish +$46?
Match Overview
Bournemouth hosted Aston Villa in the Premier League, finishing 1-1. Goals: M. Rogers (22'), Rayan (55'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$45.94 (ROI: +23.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to 0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.81 to 1.86; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.74 to 2.95.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bournemouth 0. Average expected value was 6.3%, with a combined stake of $156. The sharpest edge was on Bournemouth 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.3% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 66' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Rayan's equalizer at 55'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Bournemouth +0.75. Average expected value was 6.5%, with a combined stake of $44. The sharpest edge was on Bournemouth +0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.3% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 6.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$45.94.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$45.94 (ROI: +23.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53%–47% in Bournemouth's favor. Bournemouth had 18 shots (9 on target) versus Aston Villa's 7 (4 on target). Expected goals: Bournemouth 2.08 — Aston Villa 0.44. Corners: 9-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +23.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 33.9% / 27.6% / 41.3% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 47.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 53.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the Under 2.75 goals outcome.
The Premier League clash between Bournemouth and Aston Villa concluded in a 1-1 draw. In the 1x2 market, our model showed Aston Villa as a marginal favorite (41.32% win probability), with the draw at 27.55%. The actual draw outcome suggests the market slightly undervalued this possibility. For the Asian Handicap, Aston Villa closed at -0.25. Our model predicted Bournemouth +0.25 to cover with 54.64% probability. The 1-1 draw meant Bournemouth +0.25 was an EV+ outcome. However, the most glaring market inefficiency was in the Totals (Over/Under) market. The closing line was set at 2.75 goals, with the market leaning heavily towards the 'Over' (53.76% probability). The match ended with only 2 goals, making the 'Under 2.75' a clear value signal that the market failed to price correctly.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +23.0% ROI on 2 trades.
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