Aston Villa

2 - 0

West Ham

Aston Villa hosted West Ham in the Premier League, finishing 2-0. Goals: J. McGinn (15'), O. Watkins (68'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 1 wave, achieving 46% precision with a net result of +$1461.01 (ROI: +18.2%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.9 to 1.96; the home moneyline shortened from 1.97 to 1.75.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Aston Villa leading 1-0 at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting West Ham -1 and West Ham -0.5 and Aston Villa and West Ham -1.5 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 27.7%, with a combined stake of $8027. The sharpest edge was on West Ham -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.7% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 46.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 6 of 13 trades won, netting +$1461.01.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap West Ham -1: AI saw 82.7% vs market's 36.4% (46.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 27'** — Asian Handicap West Ham -1: AI saw 82.3% vs market's 36.4% (46.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap West Ham -1: AI saw 81.6% vs market's 36.4% (45.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap West Ham -1.5: AI saw 83.4% vs market's 51.9% (31.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap West Ham -1.5: AI saw 82.8% vs market's 51.9% (30.9pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$811.69 (ROI: +30.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$629.93 (ROI: +25.2%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, +$19.39 (ROI: +0.7%)

Possession was 59%–41% in Aston Villa's favor. Aston Villa had 22 shots (7 on target) versus West Ham's 9 (1 on target). Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.66 — West Ham 0.94. Corners: 6-6.