Aston Villa4 - 3Sunderland
Aston VillaWhy did AI enter 4 times at 25', 33', 36', 48' — and still finish +$336?
Match Overview
Aston Villa hosted Sunderland in the Premier League, finishing 4-3. Goals: O. Watkins (2'), C. Rigg (9'), O. Watkins (36'), O. Watkins (37'), M. Rogers (46'), M. Rogers (47'), T. Hume (86'), W. Isidor (87'), T. Abraham (90'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 4 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of +$335.75 (ROI: +4.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.83 to 2.02; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.94 to 2; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.65 to 1.78.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Over 3.5 and Sunderland -0.5 and Sunderland -1. Average expected value was 17.0%, with a combined stake of $4038. The sharpest edge was on Sunderland -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.0% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 34.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 2 of 7 trades won, netting $-300.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 33' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 33'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sunderland 0. Average expected value was 21.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Sunderland 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.0% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 19.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 36' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after O. Watkins's equalizer at 36'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Aston Villa and Sunderland -1.5. Average expected value was 23.1%, with a combined stake of $2150. The sharpest edge was on Sunderland -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.4% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 33.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** 3 of 4 trades won, netting +$1037.25. ### Wave 4 — Minute 48' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Aston Villa leading 2-1 at 48'. M. Rogers scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sunderland -1.5. Average expected value was 39.9%, with a combined stake of $684. The sharpest edge was on Sunderland -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.2% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 37.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$598.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Sunderland -1.5: AI saw 91.2% vs market's 53.3% (37.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Sunderland -1: AI saw 80.0% vs market's 45.5% (34.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Sunderland -1: AI saw 79.5% vs market's 45.5% (34.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap Sunderland -1.5: AI saw 88.4% vs market's 54.8% (33.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Moneyline Aston Villa: AI saw 74.4% vs market's 48.8% (25.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/3L/1V, +$174.50 (ROI: +4.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/3L/1V, +$161.25 (ROI: +4.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 50%–50% in Aston Villa's deficit. Aston Villa had 13 shots (7 on target) versus Sunderland's 10 (7 on target). Expected goals: Aston Villa 2.48 — Sunderland 1.76. Corners: 4-5.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +4.3% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$174.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 56.2% / 27.0% / 20.0% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 49.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 50.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant Value on Over 2.5 Goals
Aston Villa secured a 4-3 victory over Sunderland in a high-scoring Premier League encounter. The 1x2 market correctly identified Aston Villa as the favorite (56.18% implied probability), which materialized. However, the Handicap market presented an inefficiency; while Aston Villa -0.75 (49.5%) ultimately covered by winning by one goal, the market had slightly favored Sunderland +0.75 (52.36%). The most pronounced error was in the Totals market. The closing line of 2.5 goals had a slight lean to the Under (52.36%), yet the match exploded for 7 total goals. This stark discrepancy highlights a significant EV+ opportunity on Over 2.5 Goals, where bookmakers clearly misjudged the offensive potential and defensive vulnerabilities of both sides.
A positive result with +4.3% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$335.75. Top performer: Active Trader at +$174.50.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.