Aston Villa4 - 2Liverpool
Aston VillaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 46', 53' — and still finish $-191?
Match Overview
Aston Villa hosted Liverpool in the Premier League, finishing 4-2. Goals: M. Rogers (42'), V. van Dijk (52'), V. van Dijk (53'), O. Watkins (57'), O. Watkins (58'), O. Watkins (73'), J. McGinn (89'), V. van Dijk (90'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 2 waves, achieving 21% precision with a net result of $-191.00 (ROI: -11.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 2.75; the home moneyline shortened from 3.33 to 3.01.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Aston Villa leading 1-0 at 46'. M. Rogers scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Liverpool -0.5 and Aston Villa and Under 2.5 and Under 2.25. Average expected value was 25.9%, with a combined stake of $864. The sharpest edge was on Liverpool -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.1% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 36.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 2 of 10 trades won, netting $-541.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 53' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after V. van Dijk's equalizer at 53'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Liverpool -0.5 and Over 2.5 and Liverpool 0. Average expected value was 27.4%, with a combined stake of $750. The sharpest edge was on Liverpool -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.2% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 31.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 1 of 4 trades won, netting +$350.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Liverpool -0.5: AI saw 80.1% vs market's 43.5% (36.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Liverpool -0.5: AI saw 79.9% vs market's 43.5% (36.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 53'** — Asian Handicap Liverpool -0.5: AI saw 73.2% vs market's 42.1% (31.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Liverpool 0: AI saw 73.7% vs market's 55.9% (17.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 48'** — Over/Under Under 2.25: AI saw 66.0% vs market's 48.5% (17.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, +$350.00 (ROI: +46.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/4L, $-268.50 (ROI: -62.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 1W/4L, $-272.50 (ROI: -62.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 45–55 in Aston Villa's deficit. Aston Villa had 14 shots (9 on target) versus Liverpool's 15 (5 on target). Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.91 — Liverpool 1.52. Corners: 4-8.
Verdict
A tough session at -11.8% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$350.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 33.2% / 28.5% / 41.1% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 54.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 50.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underpriced the Over 2.75 Goals line.
Aston Villa decisively defeated Liverpool 4-2 in a Premier League fixture. The 1x2 market priced Liverpool as the 41.15% favorite (2.43 odds), with Aston Villa at 33.22% (3.01 odds), indicating a clear misjudgment of Aston Villa's win probability and offering significant Closing Line Value (CLV) for home backers. On the Asian Handicap, the line closed at Liverpool -0.25; Aston Villa, starting with a +0.25 advantage, comfortably covered by winning 4-2, further highlighting the market's underestimation of their strength. The most pronounced inefficiency was in the Totals market, where the Over/Under line closed at 2.75 goals, with a slight market lean towards the Under (52.36% probability). The match produced an explosive 6 total goals, making the 'Over 2.75' an undeniable EV+ bet and a significant miss for the bookmakers.
A tough session at -11.8% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$350.00.
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