Aston Villa0 - 1Brentford
Aston Villa1 trades, 0% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Aston Villa hosted Brentford in the Premier League, finishing 0-1. Goals: D. Ouattara (45'), T. Abraham (48'). Brentford received a red card (K. Schade, 42'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.97 to 2.19.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 69' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Brentford leading 0-1 at 69'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Aston Villa 0. Average expected value was 5.0%, with a combined stake of $153. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 72%–28% in Aston Villa's favor. Aston Villa had 23 shots (5 on target) versus Brentford's 6 (2 on target). Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.78 — Brentford 0.53. Corners: 10-1.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at 0.0% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 45.7% / 28.4% / 28.7% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 52.9% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Under 2.5 Goals Value Bet
The Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Brentford concluded with a 0-1 away victory for Brentford, a result that significantly diverged from market expectations. The 1x2 market heavily favored Aston Villa with an implied win probability of 45.66%, while Brentford's eventual victory was priced at a mere 28.74%. In the Asian Handicap market (Villa -0.25), the market slightly favored Villa to cover at 52.91%, yet Brentford comfortably covered the +0.25 line with their clean sheet win. However, the most pronounced market inefficiency was observed in the Totals (Over/Under) market. Despite a closing line of 2.5 goals and a strong market lean towards the Over (54.05% probability), the match saw only 1 goal, resulting in the Under 2.5 hitting. This indicates a clear Closing Line Value (CLV) on the Under, as the market failed to accurately predict the low-scoring nature of the contest.
A marginally negative session at 0.0% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions.
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