Arsenal

2 - 0

Everton

Arsenal hosted Everton in the Premier League, finishing 2-0. Goals: V. Gyokeres (89'), M. Dowman (90'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 3 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-5770.00 (ROI: -100.0%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.5 to -1.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.25 to 1.44.

### Wave 1 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Everton -1 and Draw. Average expected value was 25.5%, with a combined stake of $2967. The sharpest edge was on Everton -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 87.9% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 38.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2967.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Everton -0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 25.8%, with a combined stake of $2028. The sharpest edge was on Everton -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.6% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 26.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2028.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 51' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 51'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Everton -1. Average expected value was 51.7%, with a combined stake of $775. The sharpest edge was on Everton -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 93.6% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 49.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-775.00.

- **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Everton -1: AI saw 93.6% vs market's 44.4% (49.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Everton -1: AI saw 87.9% vs market's 49.4% (38.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Everton -1: AI saw 87.5% vs market's 49.4% (38.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Everton -0.5: AI saw 68.6% vs market's 42.6% (26.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Everton -0.5: AI saw 67.9% vs market's 42.6% (25.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-1803.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-1979.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-1988.00 (ROI: -100.0%)

Possession was 65%–35% in Arsenal's favor. Arsenal had 25 shots (7 on target) versus Everton's 9 (3 on target). Expected goals: Arsenal 2.59 — Everton 1.05. Corners: 8-3.