Arsenal1 - 0Burnley
Arsenal2 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Arsenal hosted Burnley in the Premier League, finishing 1-0. Goals: K. Havertz (37'), K. Havertz (38'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$28.22 (ROI: +100.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -2.5 but home odds shifted from 1.98 to 2.01; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.5 to 3.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Burnley -2.5. Average expected value was 10.2%, with a combined stake of $28. The sharpest edge was on Burnley -2.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.2% probability versus the market's implied 49.0% — a 6.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.04. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$28.22.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$28.22 (ROI: +100.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 61–39 in Arsenal's favor. Arsenal had 13 shots (3 on target) versus Burnley's 5 (0 on target). Expected goals: Arsenal 1.03 — Burnley 0.21. Corners: 3-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +100.8% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 90.9% / 8.6% / 4.4% |
| Asian handicap | -2.5 | 49.8% |
| Over / Under | 3.25 | 50.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Asian Handicap market accurately predicted Arsenal would not cover the -2.5 line.
Arsenal secured a narrow 1-0 victory against Burnley. The 1x2 market accurately predicted an Arsenal win with a 90.91% implied probability, aligning with the outright result. However, the most notable efficiency was observed in the Asian Handicap market. With a line of -2.5 for Arsenal, the market indicated that Burnley +2.5 had a slightly higher probability (52.91%) of covering than Arsenal -2.5 (49.75%). This proved prescient, as Arsenal's 1-0 scoreline meant they failed to cover the -2.5 handicap. The Totals (O/U) market, set at 3.25 goals, also demonstrated efficiency by leaning towards the Under (52.08% probability), correctly anticipating the low-scoring affair. This match presented a clear value signal for those tracking the Handicap market's nuanced prediction.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +100.8% ROI on 2 trades.
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