Toulouse1 - 1Paris FC
ToulouseWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-200 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Toulouse hosted Paris FC in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-1. Goals: D. Methalie (23'), M. Munetsi (39'), J. Vignolo (87'), J. Vignolo (88'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.94 to 2.07; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.93 to 2.06.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Toulouse -0.5. Average expected value was 0.6%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 55%–45% in Toulouse's favor. Toulouse had 23 shots (10 on target) versus Paris FC's 5 (2 on target). Expected goals: Toulouse 3.01 — Paris FC 0.82. Corners: 12-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 48.5% / 29.9% / 24.6% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 53.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 50.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly underestimated the probability of a draw.
The match between Toulouse and Paris FC concluded in a 1-1 draw. Analysis of the 1x2 market revealed a significant market inefficiency, as the market priced Toulouse as clear favorites with a 48.54% implied win probability, while the draw was only given a 29.85% probability. The actual outcome of a draw indicates the market significantly **underestimated the probability of a stalemate**. In the Asian Handicap market, Paris FC (+0.5) was correctly identified as marginally more likely to cover at 53.76% probability, which they did. For the Totals market, the closing line of 2.25 saw a slight lean towards the Under (52.08% probability), which proved accurate with only 2 goals scored. The most pronounced mispricing was in the 1x2 market, where the draw offered substantial **Closing Line Value**.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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