Toulouse2 - 2Monaco
ToulouseWhy did AI enter 2 times at 62', 80' — and still finish +$3741?
Match Overview
Toulouse hosted Monaco in the Ligue 1, finishing 2-2. Goals: J. Teze (6'), L. Camara (18'), J. Russell-Rowe (61'), J. Russell-Rowe (62'), Emersonn (90'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 2 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$3741.00 (ROI: +129.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.36 to 4.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 62' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Monaco leading 1-2 at 62'. J. Russell-Rowe scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5. Average expected value was 30.2%, with a combined stake of $1098. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 27.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1509.75. ### Wave 2 — Minute 80' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Monaco leading 1-2 at 80'. Monaco made 3 substitutions. 4 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Toulouse +1. Average expected value was 37.5%, with a combined stake of $1785. The sharpest edge was on Toulouse +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.0% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 36.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$2231.25.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 80'** — Asian Handicap Toulouse +1: AI saw 81.0% vs market's 44.4% (36.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 80'** — Asian Handicap Toulouse +1: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 44.4% (35.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 80'** — Asian Handicap Toulouse +1: AI saw 80.0% vs market's 44.4% (35.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 80'** — Asian Handicap Toulouse +1: AI saw 79.7% vs market's 44.4% (35.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 62'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 42.1% (27.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1424.88 (ROI: +131.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1412.38 (ROI: +131.4%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$653.75 (ROI: +125.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$250.00 (ROI: +125.0%)
Match Statistics
Toulouse had 15 shots (4 on target) versus Monaco's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +129.8% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$1424.88.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 22.2% / 24.3% / 56.8% |
| Asian handicap | +0.75 | 50.3% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the 'Over 3 Goals' line.
The Ligue 1 fixture between Toulouse and Monaco concluded in a 2-2 draw. The 1x2 market initially favored Monaco with a 56.82% implied win probability, significantly underestimating the actual outcome of a draw (implied 24.33%). On the Asian Handicap market, Toulouse as a +0.75 underdog successfully covered their spread (Monaco -0.75 failed to cover), with the market assigning 51.81% probability for Toulouse +0.75 to cover. However, the most striking inefficiency was observed in the Totals market. With a closing line of 3 goals, the market leaned towards the Under with a 53.48% probability. The match, however, produced 4 goals, resulting in a clear 'Over' outcome. This demonstrates a strong Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity for bettors who backed the Over, indicating a clear mispricing by the bookmakers on total goals.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +129.8% ROI on 6 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$1424.88.
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