Toulouse2 - 1Lyon
ToulouseWhy did AI enter 7 times at 0', 25', 32', 45', 48', 73', 78' — and still finish +$1150?
Match Overview
Toulouse hosted Lyon in the Ligue 1, finishing 2-1. Goals: D. Methalie (10'), C. Tolisso (71'), W. Kamanzi (78'). Toulouse received a red card (A. Donnum, 79'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 7 waves, achieving 55% precision with a net result of +$1150.38 (ROI: +19.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.69 to 4.34.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.75. Average expected value was 5.9%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$98.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Toulouse leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Lyon 0 and Under 3.5 and Over 2.5 and Lyon +1. Average expected value was 27.1%, with a combined stake of $3200. The sharpest edge was on Lyon 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.6% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 40.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting +$454.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 32' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Toulouse leading 1-0 at 32'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Toulouse. Average expected value was 5.1%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$600.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Toulouse leading 1-0 at 45'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 52.3% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 6.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 48' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Toulouse leading 1-0 at 48'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lyon -0.5. Average expected value was 33.2%, with a combined stake of $569. The sharpest edge was on Lyon -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.5% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 31.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$497.88. ### Wave 6 — Minute 73' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after C. Tolisso's equalizer at 71'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 13.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 58.5% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 6.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.909. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 78' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after W. Kamanzi's equalizer at 78'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 40.0%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 87.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 37.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Lyon 0: AI saw 84.6% vs market's 44.4% (40.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Lyon 0: AI saw 84.3% vs market's 44.4% (39.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 78'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 87.4% vs market's 50.0% (37.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 48'** — Asian Handicap Lyon -0.5: AI saw 84.5% vs market's 53.3% (31.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Lyon +1: AI saw 56.7% vs market's 37.4% (19.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$597.88 (ROI: +17.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$454.50 (ROI: +19.3%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$98.00 (ROI: +49.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 39–61 in Toulouse's deficit. Toulouse had 14 shots (6 on target) versus Lyon's 18 (3 on target). Expected goals: Toulouse 1.19 — Lyon 1.54. Corners: 7-8.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +19.3% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$597.88.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 23.0% / 25.1% / 54.6% |
| Asian handicap | +0.75 | 48.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 51.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant underestimation of Toulouse's outright win in the 1x2 market.
The Ligue 1 clash saw Toulouse secure a 2-1 victory over Lyon, an outcome that highlighted a significant market inefficiency. The 1x2 market heavily favored Lyon with a 54.64% implied probability, drastically underestimating Toulouse's 23.04% chance of winning. This created clear Closing Line Value (CLV) on the home side. On the Asian Handicap of -0.75 for Lyon, Toulouse covering the spread (+0.75 with 53.76% probability) proved to be an insightful signal, as they secured an outright win. The Totals market, set at 2.75 goals, saw 3 goals scored, hitting the Over despite the market slightly leaning Under (51.55% for Under vs 51.02% for Over). OddsFlow analysis confirms a strong value signal on Toulouse to win.
A positive result with +19.3% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$1150.38. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$597.88.
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