Toulouse

1 - 0

Lorient

Toulouse hosted Lorient in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-0. Goals: Emersonn (82'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 4 waves, achieving 25% precision with a net result of $-1625.00 (ROI: -40.6%).

Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lorient -0.5. Average expected value was 7.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Lorient -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.6% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 37.6% probability versus the market's implied 32.3% — a 5.3 percentage point gap at odds of 3.1. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 45'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Lorient 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 21.8%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Lorient 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.9% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 28.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 82' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Toulouse leading 1-0 at 82'. Emersonn scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Toulouse. Average expected value was 34.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Toulouse (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 38.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1375.00.

- **Minute 82'** — Moneyline Toulouse: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 42.1% (38.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Lorient 0: AI saw 64.9% vs market's 36.4% (28.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Lorient 0: AI saw 64.3% vs market's 36.4% (28.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 82'** — Moneyline Toulouse: AI saw 64.8% vs market's 42.1% (22.7pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-812.50 (ROI: -40.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-812.50 (ROI: -40.6%)

Possession was 42%–58% in Toulouse's deficit. Toulouse had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Lorient's 7 (2 on target). Expected goals: Toulouse 1.15 — Lorient 0.4. Corners: 1-4.