Toulouse0 - 4Lille
ToulouseWhy did AI enter 2 times at 40', 47' — and still finish $-466?
Match Overview
Toulouse hosted Lille in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-4. Goals: T. Meunier (23'), R. Perraud (50'), M. Fernandez-Pardo (55'), O. Giroud (88' pen). Toulouse received a red card (M. McKenzie, 48'). OddsFlow deployed 5 trades across 2 waves, achieving 40% precision with a net result of $-466.00 (ROI: -17.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.81 to 1.93; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.87 to 1.97; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.06 to 3.43.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Lille leading 0-1 at 40'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Toulouse +1 and Lille. Average expected value was 25.7%, with a combined stake of $2216. The sharpest edge was on Toulouse +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 76.5% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 28.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$34.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Lille leading 0-1 at 47'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Toulouse +0.5. Average expected value was 44.6%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Toulouse +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.8% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 42.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Toulouse +0.5: AI saw 78.8% vs market's 36.4% (42.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap Toulouse +1: AI saw 76.5% vs market's 47.6% (28.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Toulouse +1: AI saw 76.2% vs market's 47.6% (28.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 40'** — Moneyline Lille: AI saw 64.5% vs market's 44.4% (20.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Moneyline Lille: AI saw 56.4% vs market's 44.4% (12.0pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-73.00 (ROI: -6.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-393.00 (ROI: -25.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 37%–63% in Toulouse's deficit. Toulouse had 9 shots (1 on target) versus Lille's 15 (9 on target). Expected goals: Toulouse 0.96 — Lille 1.84. Corners: 4-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -17.2% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-73.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 29.1% / 30.6% / 43.5% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 50.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 50.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated Lille's attacking output, offering substantial value on the Over 2.25 goals line.
Lille secured a dominant 4-0 away victory over Toulouse. In the 1x2 market, Lille's win probability closed at 43.48%. This was a significant undervaluation, as the 4-0 triumph demonstrates strong Closing Line Value (CLV) for Lille backers. On the Asian Handicap of -0.25 for Lille, the market assigned a 50.76% chance of them covering. Lille's emphatic 4-goal margin exposed a clear market inefficiency, presenting a substantial EV+ opportunity for those who wagered on Lille to cover. The Over/Under market closed at 2.25 goals, with the Over priced at 50.76%. The actual total of 4 goals strongly indicates that the market notably underestimated the match's goal-scoring potential. This was a clear value signal for the Over, highlighting a profitable deviation from market sentiment.
A tough session at -17.2% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-73.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.