Toulouse0 - 0Auxerre
Toulouse1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Toulouse hosted Auxerre in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-0. Goals: S. Hidalgo (38'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$74.25 (ROI: +50.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 2.01 to 2.05; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.95 to 2.12.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 26' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 26'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Auxerre -0.25. Average expected value was 5.9%, with a combined stake of $149. The sharpest edge was on Auxerre -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 5.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$74.25.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$74.25 (ROI: +50.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 49%–51% in Toulouse's deficit. Toulouse had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Auxerre's 8 (2 on target). Expected goals: Toulouse 0.74 — Auxerre 0.49. Corners: 5-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +50.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 0.6% / 0.3% / 0.2% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 0.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 0.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overestimated goal expectancy, leading to a substantial **value bet** on Under 2.25.
The Ligue 1 fixture between Toulouse and Auxerre concluded in a 0-0 draw, revealing significant **market inefficiencies**. The 1x2 market showed Toulouse as a clear **market favorite** with a 55.87% win probability, while the actual **draw outcome** was priced at just 28.09%, indicating a substantial **value signal** for the draw. In the **Asian Handicap** market, the line was set at Toulouse -0.75. Although Auxerre +0.75 was marginally favored to cover at 53.19%, the goalless draw meant Auxerre ultimately **covered the spread**. However, the most pronounced **market mispricing** was in the **Goals Over/Under** market, which closed at 2.25. Despite the market leaning towards the Under (55.25%), the actual total of 0 goals represents a considerable deviation from the implied goal expectancy, leading to a strong **EV+** opportunity for the Under.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +50.0% ROI on 1 trades.
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