Strasbourg1 - 2Toulouse
StrasbourgWhat the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 34.0% / 27.8% / 41.0% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 47.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Underpriced Over 2.75 Goals
The Ligue 1 fixture between Strasbourg and Toulouse concluded with a 1-2 victory for Toulouse. The 1x2 market was relatively efficient, accurately identifying Toulouse as a slight favorite with a 40.98% win probability, which aligned with the actual outcome. However, the handicap market (Toulouse -0.25) showed a subtle inefficiency; despite the market slightly favoring Strasbourg +0.25 (54.95%), Toulouse secured the win and covered the spread. The most significant market mispricing was observed in the Totals market. With an O/U line of 2.75, the market leaned towards the Under with a 53.48% probability. However, the match produced 3 goals (1-2), resulting in an Over. This indicates a clear market inefficiency where bookmakers underestimated the goal-scoring potential. Punters backing the Over would have found significant Closing Line Value (CLV).
No entry signals — model found no valuable odds
Our AI analyzed Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets in real-time but did not detect sufficient edge.
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