Strasbourg0 - 3Rennes
StrasbourgWhy did AI enter 3 times at 26', 30', 38' — and still finish $-4733?
Match Overview
Strasbourg hosted Rennes in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-3. Goals: E. Lepaul (20'), B. Embolo (50'), M. Tamari (52'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 3 waves, achieving 36% precision with a net result of $-4733.00 (ROI: -51.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.88 to 2.1; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.47 to 2.83.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 26' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Rennes leading 0-1 at 26'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Strasbourg +1.5 and Over 2.5 and Rennes. Average expected value was 26.7%, with a combined stake of $4883. The sharpest edge was on Strasbourg +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 93.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 42.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** 3 of 6 trades won, netting $-2295.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Rennes leading 0-1 at 30'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Strasbourg +1. Average expected value was 45.4%, with a combined stake of $1645. The sharpest edge was on Strasbourg +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.9% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 43.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1645.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Rennes leading 0-1 at 38'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Rennes and Strasbourg +0.5. Average expected value was 21.0%, with a combined stake of $2609. The sharpest edge was on Strasbourg +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 29.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting $-792.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Strasbourg +1: AI saw 79.9% vs market's 36.4% (43.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Strasbourg +1: AI saw 79.4% vs market's 36.4% (43.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Strasbourg +1: AI saw 79.3% vs market's 36.4% (42.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Strasbourg +1.5: AI saw 93.0% vs market's 50.6% (42.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Strasbourg +1.5: AI saw 92.5% vs market's 50.6% (41.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-1357.00 (ROI: -43.3%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-1415.50 (ROI: -45.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-1960.50 (ROI: -68.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 54%–46% in Strasbourg's favor. Strasbourg had 8 shots (1 on target) versus Rennes's 26 (9 on target). Expected goals: Strasbourg 0.76 — Rennes 3.48. Corners: 2-9.
Verdict
A tough session at -51.8% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-1357.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 35.3% / 27.2% / 40.3% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 54.4% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 53.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Asian Handicap market significantly underestimated Rennes' dominant 3-goal victory.
Rennes secured a dominant 0-3 away victory against Strasbourg in Ligue 1. The 1x2 market correctly identified Rennes as the marginal favorite with a 40.32% implied win probability, which proved accurate. However, despite Rennes being the slight favorite on the 0 Asian Handicap line (54.35% probability), their comprehensive 3-goal victory significantly surpassed the market's expectation. This indicates a strong Market Inefficiency where the Closing Line Value (CLV) on Rennes at more aggressive handicaps would have been substantial, and their overall dominance was profoundly underestimated. The market also correctly anticipated an 'Over' outcome for the 2.75 goal line with a 53.48% probability, with 3 total goals hitting the over.
A tough session at -51.8% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-1357.00.
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