Strasbourg3 - 1Nice
StrasbourgWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 28', 35' — and still finish $-569?
Match Overview
Strasbourg hosted Nice in the Ligue 1, finishing 3-1. Goals: M. Godo (28'), J. Enciso (36'), S. El Mourabet (42'), A. Mendy (82'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 3 waves, achieving 40% precision with a net result of $-569.00 (ROI: -9.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.96; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.84 to 1.95.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Nice 0 and Strasbourg. Average expected value was 10.0%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Nice 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 51.4% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 14.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$250.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 28'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Nice -1 and Draw and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 20.5%, with a combined stake of $2969. The sharpest edge was on Nice -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.5% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 29.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting $-819.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Strasbourg leading 1-0 at 35'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nice -1. Average expected value was 41.2%, with a combined stake of $937. The sharpest edge was on Nice -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 38.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Nice -1: AI saw 86.0% vs market's 47.6% (38.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Nice -1: AI saw 77.5% vs market's 47.6% (29.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Nice -1: AI saw 76.6% vs market's 47.6% (29.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 29'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 60.8% vs market's 45.5% (15.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Nice 0: AI saw 51.4% vs market's 37.4% (14.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, $-70.00 (ROI: -3.1%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-499.00 (ROI: -18.3%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 59%–41% in Strasbourg's favor. Strasbourg had 16 shots (6 on target) versus Nice's 8 (3 on target). Expected goals: Strasbourg 2.26 — Nice 0.32. Corners: 4-9.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at -9.6% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$0.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 51.3% / 27.6% / 24.8% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 52.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the total goals, creating an EV+ opportunity on Over 2.75.
The match between Strasbourg and Nice concluded with a 3-1 victory for Strasbourg. Analyzing the **1x2 market**, Strasbourg's win (implied probability of 51.28%) aligned reasonably with the outcome, suggesting fair market assessment. In the **Handicap Asian market**, Strasbourg successfully covered the -0.5 line, with the market offering a 51.02% probability for this outcome. However, the most significant **market inefficiency** was observed in the **Goals Over/Under market**. With a closing line of 2.75, the market assigned only a 52.08% probability to the Over. The actual total of 4 goals indicates a clear **EV+ opportunity** for bettors who identified the value on the Over 2.75, as the market considerably **underestimated** the goal-scoring potential.
A marginally negative session at -9.6% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$0.00.
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