Strasbourg3 - 1Lyon
StrasbourgWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-200 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Strasbourg hosted Lyon in the Ligue 1, finishing 3-1. Goals: M. Godo (37'), D. Moreira (52'), C. Tolisso (59'), J. Panichelli (83' pen). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.05 to 2.08; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.99 to 2.04.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 58' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** Strasbourg leading 2-0 at 58'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under -0.25. Average expected value was 5.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Under -0.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 57.6% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 5.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 50%–50% in Strasbourg's deficit. Strasbourg had 13 shots (7 on target) versus Lyon's 4 (2 on target). Expected goals: Strasbourg 2.07 — Lyon 0.28. Corners: 4-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 41.7% / 27.8% / 33.2% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Over 2.75 goals.
In the Ligue 1 clash between Strasbourg and Lyon, Strasbourg secured a decisive 3-1 victory, leading to a total of 4 goals. The 1x2 market correctly identified Strasbourg as the slight favorite (41.67% win probability). However, the market exhibited notable inefficiencies in both the handicap and total goals markets. On the Asian Handicap of -0.25, the market leaned towards Lyon +0.25 covering (54.05% probability), yet Strasbourg comfortably covered their -0.25 line with a two-goal winning margin. The most significant mispricing occurred in the Goals Over/Under market. Despite a closing line of 2.75, the market heavily favored the Under at 53.48% probability. The actual outcome of 4 goals resulted in a clear 'Over' outcome, demonstrating a strong EV+ signal for those who backed Over 2.75. This represents a prime example of market sentiment failing to align with the eventual high-scoring affair.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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