Strasbourg1 - 1Lens
StrasbourgWhy did AI enter 2 times at 61', 66' — and still finish $-1259?
Match Overview
Strasbourg hosted Lens in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-1. Goals: J. Panichelli (18'), J. Panichelli (19'), M. Sangare (62'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 2 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-1259.29 (ROI: -77.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 61' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Strasbourg leading 1-0 at 61'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lens -0.25. Average expected value was 4.0%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$175.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 66' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after M. Sangare's equalizer at 62'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Lens and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 20.4%, with a combined stake of $1434. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 60.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 17.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1434.29.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 67'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 60.0% vs market's 42.1% (17.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-1259.29 (ROI: -77.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 55%–45% in Strasbourg's favor. Strasbourg had 8 shots (5 on target) versus Lens's 24 (4 on target). Expected goals: Strasbourg 0.75 — Lens 1.77. Corners: 2-8.
Verdict
A tough session at -77.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 43.7% / 26.9% / 32.1% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 50.0% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 49.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market heavily underestimated the probability of a draw.
The Ligue 1 fixture between Strasbourg and Lens concluded in a 1-1 draw. The 1x2 market presented a clear inefficiency, as the OddsFlow model's implied draw probability was only 26.88%, yet the match ended level. This represents a significant Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity for bettors backing the draw. In the Handicap market, Strasbourg was favored at -0.25 with a 50% probability to cover. However, the 1-1 draw meant Lens (+0.25) covered. For the Totals market, the closing line was set at 3 goals. With only 2 goals scored, the 'Under 3' hit, aligning with the market's slight lean towards the Under (53.19% implied probability).
A tough session at -77.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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