Stade Brestois 291 - 2Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29Why did AI enter 6 times at 20', 25', 34', 40', 47', 60' — and still finish +$7020?
Match Overview
Stade Brestois 29 hosted Strasbourg in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-2. Goals: V. Barco (9'), L. Ajorque (13'), S. Nanasi (20'). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 6 waves, achieving 62% precision with a net result of +$7019.65 (ROI: +93.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.25 to 0; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline shortened from 2.9 to 2.76.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 20' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after S. Nanasi's equalizer at 20'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Stade Brestois 29 +0.25 and Stade Brestois 29 +1. Average expected value was 21.2%, with a combined stake of $239. The sharpest edge was on Stade Brestois 29 +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.4% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 17.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting $-39.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Strasbourg leading 1-2 at 25'. S. Nanasi scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Stade Brestois 29 0 and Stade Brestois 29 +0.5 and Under 5.5 and Strasbourg. Average expected value was 34.3%, with a combined stake of $2952. The sharpest edge was on Stade Brestois 29 +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.9% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 36.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 5 of 9 trades won, netting +$2876.10. ### Wave 3 — Minute 34' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Strasbourg leading 1-2 at 34'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Strasbourg. Average expected value was 5.1%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$250.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 40' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Strasbourg leading 1-2 at 40'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 9.3%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 49.2% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 7.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1375.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Strasbourg leading 1-2 at 47'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Strasbourg and Under 4.5 and Stade Brestois 29 -0.25 and Stade Brestois 29 +0.5. Average expected value was 36.8%, with a combined stake of $1833. The sharpest edge was on Stade Brestois 29 +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 34.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 3 of 5 trades won, netting +$1732.55. ### Wave 6 — Minute 60' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Strasbourg leading 1-2 at 60'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Stade Brestois 29 +1. Average expected value was 26.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Stade Brestois 29 +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.6% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 24.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$825.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Stade Brestois 29 +0.5: AI saw 73.9% vs market's 37.4% (36.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Stade Brestois 29 +0.5: AI saw 73.6% vs market's 37.4% (36.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Stade Brestois 29 +0.5: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 42.6% (34.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Stade Brestois 29 -0.25: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 47.2% (29.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Stade Brestois 29 -0.25: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 48.3% (28.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/0L/2V, +$2673.27 (ROI: +98.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/0L/2V, +$2652.83 (ROI: +97.2%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/0L/2V, +$1732.55 (ROI: +94.5%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-39.00 (ROI: -16.3%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 48–52 in Stade Brestois 29's deficit. Stade Brestois 29 had 20 shots (6 on target) versus Strasbourg's 10 (5 on target). Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 3 — Strasbourg 1.79. Corners: 5-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +93.3% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2673.27.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 36.2% / 27.6% / 38.9% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 52.9% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 50.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the potential for goals, presenting clear EV+ for Over 2.75.
Strasbourg secured a 2-1 away victory against Stade Brestois 29. In the 1x2 Moneyline market, OddsFlow data indicated Strasbourg as a slight favorite with a 38.91% win probability, aligning with the actual outcome and demonstrating market efficiency on the outright winner. The Asian Handicap market, set at a 0 line, also correctly leaned towards Strasbourg covering with a 52.91% probability, which they did by winning outright. However, a clear market inefficiency emerged in the Goals Over/Under market. Despite the match concluding with 3 goals (Over 2.75), the closing line market probabilities surprisingly favored the Under with 52.08% compared to 50.25% for the Over. This suggests the market significantly underestimated the potential for goals.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +93.3% ROI on 21 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2673.27.
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