Stade Brestois 291 - 1Angers
Stade Brestois 29Why did AI enter 6 times at 0', 40', 43', 46', 54', 72' — and still finish +$451?
Match Overview
Stade Brestois 29 hosted Angers in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-1. Goals: R. Del Castillo (55'), A. Sbai (60'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 6 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of +$450.50 (ROI: +33.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.81 to 1.88.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Stade Brestois 29 -0.5. Average expected value was 8.6%, with a combined stake of $25. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-25.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 40'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 12.2%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 55.7% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 10.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 43'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.25 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 50.5%, with a combined stake of $777. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 83.5% probability versus the market's implied 49.3% — a 34.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.03. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-61.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 9.0%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 39.4% probability versus the market's implied 30.8% — a 8.6 percentage point gap at odds of 3.25. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$225.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 54' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 54'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 10.0%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 33.9% probability versus the market's implied 20.4% — a 13.5 percentage point gap at odds of 4.9. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$390.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 72' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Sbai's equalizer at 60'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 9.6%, with a combined stake of $150. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$122.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 43'** — Over/Under Under 1.25: AI saw 83.5% vs market's 49.3% (34.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 43'** — Over/Under Under 1.25: AI saw 83.5% vs market's 50.3% (33.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 43'** — Over/Under Under 1.25: AI saw 81.8% vs market's 49.3% (32.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 43'** — Over/Under Under 1.25: AI saw 81.8% vs market's 50.3% (31.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 43'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 83.5% vs market's 66.7% (16.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, +$254.00 (ROI: +43.9%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$122.00 (ROI: +81.3%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, +$99.50 (ROI: +16.6%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-25.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 58–42 in Stade Brestois 29's favor. Stade Brestois 29 had 16 shots (4 on target) versus Angers's 8 (2 on target). Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 0.75 — Angers 0.78. Corners: 4-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +33.3% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$254.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 53.5% / 26.4% / 23.0% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 53.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Overestimated Total Goals (Under 2.5 Value)
The Ligue 1 clash between Stade Brestois 29 and Angers concluded in a 1-1 draw, a result that exposed notable market inefficiencies. The 1x2 market heavily favored a Stade Brestois 29 victory (53.48% implied probability) but missed the Draw outcome, which had only a 26.39% probability. Similarly, the Asian Handicap market at -0.5 for Brestois also failed, as the home side did not cover. The most significant mispricing, however, was in the Totals market. With a closing line of 2.5 goals, the market strongly leaned Over (53.48% implied probability), yet the match ended with just two goals, indicating substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) on the Under 2.5. This points to a clear failure of market sentiment to accurately predict the game's scoring dynamics.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +33.3% ROI on 14 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$254.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.