Saint Etienne0 - 0Rodez
Saint EtienneWhy did AI enter 3 times at 10', 35', 65' — and still finish $-353?
Match Overview
Saint Etienne hosted Rodez in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-0. Goals: Z. Davitashvili (120' pen), L. Stassin (120' pen), E. Jean-Lambert (120' pen), M. Saka (120' pen), J. Ferreira (120' pen), T. Arconte (120' pen), K. Nagera (120' pen), D. N'Guessan (120' pen), S. Benchamma (120' pen), A. Kante (120' pen), O. Joly (120' pen), M. Bernauer (120' pen), M. Nade (120' pen). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 3 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of $-352.72 (ROI: -48.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 2.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.61 to 1.79.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Rodez -0.5. Average expected value was 16.8%, with a combined stake of $185. The sharpest edge was on Rodez -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.0% probability versus the market's implied 49.0% — a 10.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.04. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$187.28. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 13.5%, with a combined stake of $296. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 72.4% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 8.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-296.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 65' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 65'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 11.1%, with a combined stake of $244. The sharpest edge was on Over 0.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-244.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$187.28 (ROI: +101.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-270.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-270.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 62–38 in Saint Etienne's favor. Saint Etienne had 11 shots (2 on target) versus Rodez's 13 (2 on target). Corners: 8-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -48.7% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$187.28.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 55.9% / 25.7% / 22.7% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 49.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Under 2.75 Goals was a significant value signal.
The Ligue 1 fixture between Saint Etienne and Rodez concluded in a surprising 0-0 draw. The 1x2 market significantly mispriced the outcome, with Saint Etienne closing as a strong favorite at 55.87% win probability, failing to secure a victory. In the Handicap market, Rodez (+0.75) successfully covered, despite the market slightly leaning towards them covering with 53.48% probability. However, the most glaring inefficiency was in the Totals market. With a closing line of 2.75 and an implied 54.05% for Over, the match ending 0-0 exposed a substantial misjudgment. The Under 2.75 represented significant Closing Line Value (CLV), indicating a clear market error.
A tough session at -48.7% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$187.28.
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