Rennes3 - 1Paris Saint Germain
RennesWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-660 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Rennes hosted Paris Saint Germain in the Ligue 1, finishing 3-1. Goals: M. Tamari (34'), E. Lepaul (69'), O. Dembele (72'), B. Embolo (81'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-660.35 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 37' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Rennes leading 1-0 at 37'. M. Tamari scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Paris Saint Germain. Average expected value was 6.9%, with a combined stake of $660. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-660.35.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-660.35 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 33%–67% in Rennes's deficit. Rennes had 13 shots (4 on target) versus Paris Saint Germain's 19 (5 on target). Expected goals: Rennes 1.36 — Paris Saint Germain 3.3. Corners: 5-7.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 15.9% / 19.5% / 68.0% |
| Asian handicap | +1.25 | 51.3% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market massively underestimated Rennes' chances in the 1x2 market.
Rennes secured a decisive 3-1 victory over Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1, confounding market expectations. The 1x2 market heavily favored PSG with a 68.03% win probability, assigning Rennes only a 15.92% chance. Rennes' outright 3-1 win represents a significant Closing Line Value (CLV) for any bettor backing the home side. On the Asian Handicap, set at 1.25 (PSG -1.25), Rennes as the +1.25 underdog not only covered but won by a 2-goal margin, far exceeding the market's slight lean for Rennes to cover (+1.25 prob: 51.28%). This was a strong EV+ play. For the Totals (O/U) market, with the line at 3.5 goals, the match produced 4 goals, resulting in an 'Over' outcome. The market had a marginal lean towards the 'Under' (53.19% vs 49.02% for 'Over'), indicating a slight undervaluation of the higher-scoring scenario. The most significant market error was the profound undervaluation of Rennes in the 1x2 market.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
See AI signals as they happen
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