Rennes2 - 1Paris FC
RennesWhy did AI enter 5 times at 0', 25', 29', 43', 53' — and still finish $-2863?
Match Overview
Rennes hosted Paris FC in the Ligue 1, finishing 2-1. Goals: W. Geubbels (53'), E. Lepaul (74'), B. Embolo (75'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 5 waves, achieving 10% precision with a net result of $-2862.50 (ROI: -48.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 1.88 to 1.93; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Paris FC -1. Average expected value was 22.8%, with a combined stake of $564. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Paris FC -1. Average expected value was 26.5%, with a combined stake of $1560. The sharpest edge was on Paris FC -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.6% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 24.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 16.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.7% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 13.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 43'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Paris FC -0.5 and Under 2.5 and Draw and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 13.6%, with a combined stake of $2225. The sharpest edge was on Paris FC -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.8% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 14.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2225.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 53'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Rennes +0.5 and Paris FC. Average expected value was 20.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Rennes +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.2% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 20.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting $-137.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Paris FC -1: AI saw 78.6% vs market's 54.1% (24.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Paris FC -1: AI saw 78.3% vs market's 54.1% (24.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 53'** — Asian Handicap Rennes +0.5: AI saw 78.2% vs market's 58.0% (20.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Paris FC -0.5: AI saw 59.8% vs market's 45.5% (14.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 29'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 63.7% vs market's 50.0% (13.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-500.00 (ROI: -38.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 1W/5L/1V, $-2362.50 (ROI: -59.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 51–49 in Rennes's favor. Rennes had 14 shots (5 on target) versus Paris FC's 11 (1 on target). Expected goals: Rennes 1.95 — Paris FC 0.93. Corners: 8-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -48.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at +$0.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 63.3% / 20.6% / 19.6% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Asian Handicap market overestimated Rennes' winning margin.
Rennes secured a 2-1 victory over Paris FC in Ligue 1. The 1x2 Market showed Rennes' outright win (2-1) aligned with the market's expectation, which priced their win probability at 63.29%. No significant market inefficiency was observed here. In the Handicap Market, the closing Asian Handicap line was Rennes -1, with a 51.81% implied probability for Rennes to cover. However, Rennes' 2-1 win resulted in a push on the -1 line, meaning they failed to cover the spread. This indicates the market slightly overvalued Rennes' ability to win by a margin of two or more goals. For the Totals Market, with a total of 3 goals scored, the match finished Under the 3.5 goal line. The market accurately anticipated this outcome, pricing the Under at 53.48% implied probability. The most notable market inefficiency was found in the Asian Handicap, where the market overestimated Rennes' capacity to win by more than a single goal.
A tough session at -48.9% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at +$0.00.
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