Rennes0 - 0Metz
RennesWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 78', 86' — and still finish +$1725?
Match Overview
Rennes hosted Metz in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-0. Goals: A. Rouault (89'). OddsFlow deployed 4 trades across 3 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of +$1725.00 (ROI: +101.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1.5 but home odds shifted from 2 to 1.97.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Metz -1. Average expected value was 13.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Metz -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.5% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 11.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1375.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 78' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 78'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Rennes -0.5. Average expected value was 0.6%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 86' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 86'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 15.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$550.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 86'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 63.0% vs market's 47.6% (15.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Metz -1: AI saw 53.5% vs market's 42.1% (11.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Metz -1: AI saw 52.9% vs market's 42.1% (10.8pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$687.50 (ROI: +137.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$687.50 (ROI: +137.5%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$350.00 (ROI: +50.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 68%–32% in Rennes's favor. Rennes had 25 shots (8 on target) versus Metz's 7 (2 on target). Expected goals: Rennes 1.46 — Metz 0.33. Corners: 8-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +101.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$687.50.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +101.5% ROI on 4 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$687.50.
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