Rennes

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Lille

Rennes hosted Lille in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-2. Goals: M. Fernandez-Pardo (2'), M. Fernandez-Pardo (3'), H. Haraldsson (47'), E. Lepaul (59'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 5 waves, achieving 44% precision with a net result of +$1322.70 (ROI: +24.2%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5; the home moneyline shortened from 2.46 to 2.22.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Lille leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Rennes and Rennes +0.5. Average expected value was 33.2%, with a combined stake of $2458. The sharpest edge was on Rennes +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.9% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 42.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$1751.70. ### Wave 2 — Minute 59' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Lille leading 1-2 at 59'. E. Lepaul scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Lille and Over 3.5. Average expected value was 13.6%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 24.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$71.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 64' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Lille leading 1-2 at 64'. E. Lepaul scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lille 0. Average expected value was 25.0%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Lille 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.1% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 22.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 67' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Lille leading 1-2 at 67'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5. Average expected value was 9.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 84' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Lille leading 1-2 at 84'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lille 0. Average expected value was 39.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Lille 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.2% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 36.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Rennes +0.5: AI saw 88.9% vs market's 46.5% (42.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Rennes +0.5: AI saw 88.8% vs market's 46.5% (42.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 84'** — Asian Handicap Lille 0: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 43.5% (36.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 60'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 45.5% (24.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 64'** — Asian Handicap Lille 0: AI saw 66.1% vs market's 43.5% (22.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$913.65 (ROI: +36.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, +$409.05 (ROI: +13.7%)

Possession was 59%–41% in Rennes's favor. Rennes had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Lille's 8 (3 on target). Expected goals: Rennes 1.01 — Lille 1.62. Corners: 5-2.