Rennes2 - 1Angers
RennesHow did AI turn 9 trades into +$4298 profit?
Match Overview
Rennes hosted Angers in the Ligue 1, finishing 2-1. Goals: M. Louer (12' OG), H. Koffi (12' OG), M. Tamari (25'), P. Peter (65'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 1 wave, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$4298.32 (ROI: +59.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.25 to -1.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 65' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Rennes leading 2-1 at 65'. P. Peter scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Angers -1.5 and Over 3.5 and Angers -1. Average expected value was 35.7%, with a combined stake of $7182. The sharpest edge was on Angers -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.2% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 50.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 6 of 9 trades won, netting +$4298.33.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 66'** — Asian Handicap Angers -1: AI saw 92.2% vs market's 42.1% (50.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap Angers -1: AI saw 92.7% vs market's 42.6% (50.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 66'** — Asian Handicap Angers -1: AI saw 91.6% vs market's 42.1% (49.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 65'** — Asian Handicap Angers -1.5: AI saw 90.8% vs market's 54.8% (36.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 65'** — Asian Handicap Angers -1.5: AI saw 91.1% vs market's 55.6% (35.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$1444.80 (ROI: +60.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$1428.70 (ROI: +59.3%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$1424.83 (ROI: +59.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 59%–41% in Rennes's favor. Rennes had 15 shots (7 on target) versus Angers's 6 (4 on target). Expected goals: Rennes 1 — Angers 1.26. Corners: 11-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +59.8% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$1444.80.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 75.2% / 17.9% / 10.1% |
| Asian handicap | -1.5 | 50.3% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 48.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market underestimated Angers on the +1.5 Asian Handicap, offering significant value.
The match between Rennes and Angers concluded 2-1, with Rennes securing the home victory. In the 1x2 market, Rennes was the strong favorite with an implied win probability of 75.19%, aligning with the actual outcome. However, the Asian Handicap market presented a notable inefficiency. With a line of -1.5, Rennes was marginally favored to cover at 50.25%. Despite the win, Rennes only prevailed by a single goal, failing to cover the -1.5 spread. This suggests that Angers +1.5 offered significant Closing Line Value (CLV). The Totals (Over/Under 3) market leaned towards the Under (54.05%), and the match ended with exactly 3 goals, resulting in a push on that specific line, indicating the market was somewhat accurate on the goal count range, but still slightly off on the exact threshold relative to the probabilities. The primary market error was in the handicap projection.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +59.8% ROI on 9 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$1444.80.
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