RED Star FC 932 - 3Rodez
RED Star FC 93Why did AI enter 5 times at 15', 25', 41', 49', 67' — and still finish +$41?
Match Overview
RED Star FC 93 hosted Rodez in the Ligue 1, finishing 2-3. Goals: K. Cabral (14'), I. Balde (29'), J. Escartin (61'), M. Magnin (67'), W. Younoussa (69'). RED Star FC 93 received a red card (G. Haag, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 21 trades across 5 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of +$41.20 (ROI: +0.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap remained steady at -0.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** RED Star FC 93 leading 1-0 at 15'. K. Cabral scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Rodez -1. Average expected value was 33.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Rodez -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.3% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 30.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$145.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** RED Star FC 93 leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting RED Star FC 93 and Rodez -0.25 and Rodez -1 and Under 3.5 and Under 3 and Under 2.75 and Rodez -0.5 and Rodez 0. Average expected value was 32.0%, with a combined stake of $6644. The sharpest edge was on Rodez -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.3% probability versus the market's implied 47.4% — a 41.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.11. **Result:** 8 of 14 trades won, netting +$2067.20. ### Wave 3 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after I. Balde's equalizer at 29'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.2%, with a combined stake of $515. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-515.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 49'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 6.3%, with a combined stake of $515. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-515.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 67' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** RED Star FC 93 leading 2-1 at 67'. M. Magnin scored moments ago. RED Star FC 93 made 4 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 41.8%, with a combined stake of $1141. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 86.4% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 38.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1141.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Rodez -0.25: AI saw 89.3% vs market's 47.4% (41.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Rodez -0.25: AI saw 89.0% vs market's 47.4% (41.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 67'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 86.4% vs market's 47.6% (38.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 67'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 85.7% vs market's 47.6% (38.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Rodez -1: AI saw 89.3% vs market's 55.6% (33.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$145.00 (ROI: +72.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 4W/6L, $-44.20 (ROI: -1.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 10 trades, 4W/6L, $-59.60 (ROI: -1.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 63–37 in RED Star FC 93's favor. RED Star FC 93 had 8 shots (4 on target) versus Rodez's 12 (5 on target). Corners: 2-3.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +0.5% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$145.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 44.6% / 28.9% / 30.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the total goals, creating a strong value signal on Over 2.5 goals.
Rodez secured an away victory against RED Star FC 93 with a 3-2 scoreline, resulting in 5 total goals. The 1x2 market significantly mispriced this outcome, with RED Star FC 93 closing as the **market favorite** (44.64% implied probability) while Rodez's actual winning probability was only 30.3%. Furthermore, the **Handicap Asian line** of -0.25 for RED Star FC 93 failed to cover, aligning with the upset. The most pronounced **market inefficiency** was in the **Totals (Over/Under) market**. Despite the closing line set at 2.5 goals, the market leaned heavily towards the Under (54.35% implied probability), underestimating the **goal-scoring potential**. The actual 5 goals scored clearly surpassed the **Over 2.5 line**, presenting a clear **EV+ opportunity** for those backing the Over.
A positive result with +0.5% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$41.20. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$145.00.
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