Paris Saint Germain1 - 0Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint GermainWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-200 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Paris Saint Germain hosted Stade Brestois 29 in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-0. Goals: D. Doue (82'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -2.25 to -2.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5. Average expected value was 5.1%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 67–33 in Paris Saint Germain's favor. Paris Saint Germain had 23 shots (6 on target) versus Stade Brestois 29's 3 (2 on target). Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 1.31 — Stade Brestois 29 0.16. Corners: 11-2.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 84.8% / 12.6% / 6.6% |
| Asian handicap | -2 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 53.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the total goals, favoring Over 3.5 when Under 3.5 was the correct read.
Paris Saint Germain secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Stade Brestois 29. The 1X2 market accurately priced PSG as overwhelming favorites, with an 84.75% implied probability of a home win. However, significant market inefficiencies emerged in other markets. PSG failed to cover the Asian Handicap of -2, a scenario the market gave a 51.81% chance of occurring. The most notable error was in the Totals market: despite the closing line setting the Over 3.5 goals at a 53.76% probability, the match finished with only one goal. This presented clear Closing Line Value (CLV) for the Under 3.5, indicating a strong Value Signal where bookmakers overestimated goal output.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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