Paris FC4 - 0Stade Brestois 29
Paris FCWhat the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 48.5% / 27.3% / 27.1% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 48.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 50.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant underestimation of total goals, providing an EV+ opportunity on Over 2.75.
The match between Paris FC and Stade Brestois 29 concluded with a decisive 4-0 victory for Paris FC. In the 1x2 market, Paris FC's actual win significantly outperformed the closing line's implied probability of 48.54%. The Asian Handicap market, set at -0.5 for Paris FC, was easily covered by their dominant 4-goal margin, despite the market pricing their cover probability at only 48.31%. However, the most pronounced market inefficiency was observed in the Totals (Over/Under) market. With a closing line of 2.75 goals and the market leaning slightly towards the Under (52.08% probability), the actual outcome of 4 goals represented a strong EV+ opportunity for the Over. This post-match analysis confirms a clear value signal on the Over 2.75 goals.
No entry signals — model found no valuable odds
Our AI analyzed Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets in real-time but did not detect sufficient edge.
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