Paris FC2 - 2Marseille
Paris FCWhat went wrong? 9 trades, $-480 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Paris FC hosted Marseille in the Ligue 1, finishing 2-2. Goals: M. Greenwood (18' pen), P. Aubameyang (53'), P. Aubameyang (54'), J. Ikone (82'), I. Kebbal (90' pen). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 1 wave, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-480.00 (ROI: -64.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.5 to 0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.03 to 4.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 48' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Marseille leading 0-1 at 48'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Marseille +0.75 and Marseille +1.25 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 4.4%, with a combined stake of $750. The sharpest edge was on Marseille +0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.1% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 5.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** 3 of 9 trades won, netting $-480.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 9 trades, 3W/6L, $-480.00 (ROI: -64.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 52%–48% in Paris FC's favor. Paris FC had 9 shots (4 on target) versus Marseille's 18 (4 on target). Expected goals: Paris FC 0.97 — Marseille 2.41. Corners: 4-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -64.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 22.2% / 25.6% / 55.3% |
| Asian handicap | +0.75 | 53.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 53.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the probability of a draw, favoring Marseille heavily in the 1x2.
The match between Paris FC and Marseille concluded in a 2-2 draw, a result that exposed a significant market inefficiency in the 1x2 odds. The closing line heavily favored Marseille with a 55.25% implied win probability, while the draw was priced at a mere 25.64%. This divergence between market expectation and actual outcome indicates substantial value on the draw. In the Asian Handicap market, Paris FC +0.75 was slightly favored at 53.48% to cover, which they successfully did with the 2-2 scoreline. The Totals market accurately predicted an 'Over' outcome for the 2.5 line, with 4 goals scored against a 53.48% probability for the Over. The most pronounced error was the underestimation of the draw's likelihood.
A tough session at -64.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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