Paris FC0 - 1Lille
Paris FCWhy did AI enter 4 times at 35', 42', 66', 84' — and still finish +$6037?
Match Overview
Paris FC hosted Lille in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-1. Goals: M. Fernandez-Pardo (26' pen). Paris FC received a red card (P. Lees-Melou, 85'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 4 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$6036.50 (ROI: +89.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 2.05; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.92 to 1.85; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.77 to 4.34.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Lille leading 0-1 at 35'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Paris FC +1.5 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 29.4%, with a combined stake of $3680. The sharpest edge was on Paris FC +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.4% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 34.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$3385.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Lille leading 0-1 at 42'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Paris FC +1. Average expected value was 34.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Paris FC +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 72.3% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 32.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 66' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Lille leading 0-1 at 66'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$363.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 84' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Lille leading 0-1 at 84'. Lille made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3.5. Average expected value was 34.0%, with a combined stake of $1576. The sharpest edge was on Under 3.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 97.8% probability versus the market's implied 66.7% — a 31.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$788.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Paris FC +1.5: AI saw 91.4% vs market's 57.1% (34.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Paris FC +1.5: AI saw 91.3% vs market's 57.1% (34.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Paris FC +1.5: AI saw 91.0% vs market's 57.1% (33.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap Paris FC +1: AI saw 72.3% vs market's 40.0% (32.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 42'** — Asian Handicap Paris FC +1: AI saw 72.3% vs market's 40.0% (32.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$2766.00 (ROI: +91.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$2757.00 (ROI: +91.2%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$513.50 (ROI: +73.4%)
Match Statistics
Paris FC had 2 shots (1 on target) versus Lille's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +89.4% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2766.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 23.0% / 26.6% / 54.0% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 53.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the Under 2.5 goals, offering strong value.
Lille secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Paris FC. In the 1x2 market, Lille was correctly priced as the favorite with a 54.05% implied probability, aligning with the actual away win. The Asian Handicap also saw Lille as the favorite at -0.5 (53.76% probability to cover), which they successfully did with their 1-goal margin. However, the most notable market inefficiency was in the Totals (Over/Under) market. The closing line leaned heavily towards Over 2.5 goals (54.05% probability), yet the match concluded with only 1 goal. This indicates a strong EV+ signal for the Under 2.5, as the market significantly overstated the probability of a higher-scoring affair.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +89.4% ROI on 10 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2766.00.
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