Paris FC3 - 2Le Havre
Paris FCWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 29' — and still finish +$3398?
Match Overview
Paris FC hosted Le Havre in the Ligue 1, finishing 3-2. Goals: C. Immobile (29'), A. Seko (33' OG), L. Gourna-Douath (33' OG), R. Ndiaye (61'), A. Gory (86'), G. Kyeremeh (90'). Paris FC received a red card (R. Matondo, 55'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 2 waves, achieving 64% precision with a net result of +$3397.75 (ROI: +47.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 2.11 to 2.09; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Le Havre 0. Average expected value was 24.5%, with a combined stake of $2465. The sharpest edge was on Le Havre 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.4% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 35.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2465.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 29' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Paris FC leading 1-0 at 29'. C. Immobile scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Paris FC and Le Havre -0.5 and Le Havre -1. Average expected value was 41.7%, with a combined stake of $4689. The sharpest edge was on Le Havre -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.3% probability versus the market's implied 49.4% — a 48.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.025. **Result:** All 7 trades won, netting +$5862.75.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 32'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre -1: AI saw 97.3% vs market's 49.4% (48.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 33'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre -1: AI saw 97.4% vs market's 49.4% (48.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre -0.5: AI saw 83.8% vs market's 36.4% (47.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 31'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre -0.5: AI saw 83.9% vs market's 36.4% (47.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre -1: AI saw 97.3% vs market's 50.0% (47.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$1249.47 (ROI: +102.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$1095.78 (ROI: +37.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$1052.50 (ROI: +35.2%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 41%–59% in Paris FC's deficit. Paris FC had 15 shots (4 on target) versus Le Havre's 17 (5 on target). Expected goals: Paris FC 1.94 — Le Havre 1.31. Corners: 9-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +47.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$1249.47.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +47.5% ROI on 11 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$1249.47.
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