Nice2 - 2Stade Brestois 29
Nice1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Nice hosted Stade Brestois 29 in the Ligue 1, finishing 2-2. Goals: R. Del Castillo (13' pen), R. Del Castillo (15' pen), K. Doumbia (23'), A. Abdi (63'), E. Wahi (71'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$128.25 (ROI: +100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.89; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.98 to 2.05.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-2) **Context:** Stade Brestois 29 leading 0-2 at 45'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nice +0.5. Average expected value was 5.1%, with a combined stake of $128. The sharpest edge was on Nice +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.1% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$128.25.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$128.25 (ROI: +100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 60%–40% in Nice's favor. Nice had 15 shots (7 on target) versus Stade Brestois 29's 12 (2 on target). Expected goals: Nice 1.35 — Stade Brestois 29 1.69. Corners: 6-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +100.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 45.7% / 28.8% / 28.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 52.9% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Undervaluation of Over 2.75 Goals.
The Ligue 1 fixture between Nice and Stade Brestois 29 concluded in a 2-2 draw, leading to 4 total goals. The 1x2 market priced Nice as the moneyline favorite with a 45.66% win probability. However, the draw, carrying an implied probability of 28.82%, significantly exceeded market expectations, indicating a potential value signal on the draw. In the Asian Handicap market, Nice (-0.25) was the favorite to cover with a 52.91% probability. The 2-2 draw resulted in Nice failing to cover, suggesting an edge for those backing the underdog. Crucially, the Totals market set the line at 2.75, with the market leaning heavily towards the Under (53.76% probability). The final score of 4 goals saw the Over 2.75 line hit emphatically, highlighting a substantial market inefficiency and presenting a clear EV+ opportunity for astute bettors.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +100.0% ROI on 1 trades.
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