Nice4 - 1Saint Etienne
NiceWhy did AI enter 5 times at 11', 35', 54', 62', 65' — and still finish $-2255?
Match Overview
Nice hosted Saint Etienne in the Ligue 1, finishing 4-1. Goals: I. Cardona (9'), J. Clauss (62'), Z. Davitashvili (77' pen), Z. Davitashvili (79' pen), K. Boudache (81'), E. Wahi (87'), E. Wahi (90'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 5 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-2255.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.97 to 2.05; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 11' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 11'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Saint Etienne -0.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $227. The sharpest edge was on Saint Etienne -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 14.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-227.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 41.4%, with a combined stake of $1137. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 82.4% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 33.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 12 trades lost, netting $-1137.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 54' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 54'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 20.7%, with a combined stake of $204. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 60.6% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 11.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-204.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 62' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 62'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Saint Etienne -1. Average expected value was 55.5%, with a combined stake of $400. The sharpest edge was on Saint Etienne -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.3% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 53.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-400.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 65' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Nice leading 1-0 at 65'. J. Clauss scored moments ago. Saint Etienne made 6 substitutions. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Saint Etienne -1. Average expected value was 52.8%, with a combined stake of $287. The sharpest edge was on Saint Etienne -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.3% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 50.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-287.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 62'** — Asian Handicap Saint Etienne -1: AI saw 97.3% vs market's 43.5% (53.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 62'** — Asian Handicap Saint Etienne -1: AI saw 97.2% vs market's 43.5% (53.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 65'** — Asian Handicap Saint Etienne -1: AI saw 97.3% vs market's 46.5% (50.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 82.4% vs market's 48.8% (33.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 82.1% vs market's 48.8% (33.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-227.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 0W/4L, $-491.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 0W/7L, $-747.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 0W/7L, $-790.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 52–48 in Nice's favor. Nice had 20 shots (10 on target) versus Saint Etienne's 12 (2 on target). Corners: 6-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-227.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 49.0% / 31.4% / 23.1% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 48.8% |
| Over / Under | 2 | 52.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued the 'Over 2.0 Goals' outcome.
The match between Nice and Saint Etienne concluded with a decisive 4-1 victory for Nice, resulting in a total of 5 goals. The 1x2 market correctly identified Nice as the favorite, with an implied win probability of 49.02%. However, the sheer margin of victory, combined with the total goals, exposed a significant market inefficiency in both the Handicap and Totals markets. Nice comfortably covered the -0.5 Asian Handicap, a bet with an implied probability of 48.78%. More notably, the Over 2.0 Goals market, priced at an implied probability of 52.91%, proved to be a strong EV+ signal. The final score of 4-1 far exceeded the closing goal line, indicating that the market sentiment heavily underestimated the offensive output from both teams, particularly Nice. This clear Value Signal for the Over demonstrates a missed opportunity for bookmakers to accurately price the higher-scoring potential of this fixture.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-227.00.
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