Nice0 - 0Metz
NiceWhy did AI enter 7 times at 0', 35', 51', 58', 64', 70', 95' — and still finish +$2384?
Match Overview
Nice hosted Metz in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 22 trades across 7 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$2383.86 (ROI: +111.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.25 to -1.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Metz -1.5. Average expected value was 19.3%, with a combined stake of $37. The sharpest edge was on Metz -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.2% probability versus the market's implied 49.5% — a 10.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.02. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$35.58. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Metz -1. Average expected value was 34.1%, with a combined stake of $867. The sharpest edge was on Metz -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 71.6% probability versus the market's implied 50.3% — a 21.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.99. **Result:** All 9 trades won, netting +$843.33. ### Wave 3 — Minute 51' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 51'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 11.8%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 58.9% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 10.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$214.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 58' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 58'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 15.4%, with a combined stake of $166. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 42.5% probability versus the market's implied 35.7% — a 6.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.8. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$298.80. ### Wave 5 — Minute 64' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 64'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Metz -0.5. Average expected value was 14.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Metz -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.2% probability versus the market's implied 47.2% — a 14.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.12. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$224.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 70' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 70'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 10.1%, with a combined stake of $165. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 47.6% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$218.15. ### Wave 7 — Minute 95' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 95'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 15.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$550.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Metz -1: AI saw 71.6% vs market's 50.3% (21.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Metz -1: AI saw 71.6% vs market's 50.3% (21.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Metz -1: AI saw 71.1% vs market's 50.3% (20.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Metz -1: AI saw 71.1% vs market's 50.3% (20.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Metz -1: AI saw 71.1% vs market's 50.3% (20.8pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 8W/0L, +$797.92 (ROI: +122.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 8 trades, 8W/0L, +$720.24 (ROI: +109.8%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$550.00 (ROI: +110.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$280.12 (ROI: +97.3%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$35.58 (ROI: +96.2%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 49–51 in Nice's deficit. Nice had 21 shots (3 on target) versus Metz's 15 (4 on target). Expected goals: Nice 1.51 — Metz 0.68. Corners: 9-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +111.7% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$797.92.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 75.8% / 16.8% / 10.7% |
| Asian handicap | -1.5 | 52.4% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 53.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant undervaluation of the Draw (1x2) and Under 3 goals (Totals).
The Ligue 1 fixture between Nice and Metz concluded in an unexpected 0-0 draw. The 1x2 market heavily favored Nice with an implied win probability of 75.76%. The draw, with a mere 16.81% implied probability, represented significant Closing Line Value (CLV) given the actual outcome. This indicates a profound market inefficiency in the 1x2 odds, where the bookmakers underestimated the likelihood of a stalemate. Nice was priced at -1.5 in the handicap market with a 52.36% probability to cover. The 0-0 result meant Nice failed to cover, suggesting the market's confidence in Nice's dominance was misplaced. The Over 3 goals line in the totals market had an implied probability of 53.76%. With zero goals scored, the Under 3 goals was an evident EV+ signal. This further highlights the market's misjudgment, anticipating a higher-scoring affair than transpired.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +111.7% ROI on 22 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$797.92.
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