Nice1 - 1Le Havre
NiceWhy did AI enter 6 times at 25', 29', 33', 37', 42', 59' — and still finish +$3814?
Match Overview
Nice hosted Le Havre in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-1. Goals: A. Samatta (41'), A. Abdi (59'). OddsFlow deployed 18 trades across 6 waves, achieving 56% precision with a net result of +$3813.50 (ROI: +42.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.98 to 1.93.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Le Havre 0 and Le Havre. Average expected value was 18.4%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Le Havre 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.4% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 28.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 0 of 6 trades won, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1875.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 33'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Le Havre -0.5. Average expected value was 16.7%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Le Havre -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.4% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 16.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1325.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 37' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 37'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.2%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 34.7% probability versus the market's implied 29.4% — a 5.3 percentage point gap at odds of 3.4. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1200.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Le Havre leading 0-1 at 42'. A. Samatta scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Nice +0.5. Average expected value was 24.2%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Nice +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.0% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 28.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1913.50. ### Wave 6 — Minute 59' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Abdi's equalizer at 59'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 24.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 22.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre 0: AI saw 67.4% vs market's 38.5% (28.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre 0: AI saw 66.6% vs market's 38.5% (28.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Nice +0.5: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 48.8% (28.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Le Havre 0: AI saw 66.5% vs market's 38.5% (28.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Nice +0.5: AI saw 75.4% vs market's 48.8% (26.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$1538.50 (ROI: +44.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$1362.50 (ROI: +38.9%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$912.50 (ROI: +45.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 46%–54% in Nice's deficit. Nice had 15 shots (5 on target) versus Le Havre's 11 (6 on target). Expected goals: Nice 2.03 — Le Havre 1.95. Corners: 5-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +42.4% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$1538.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 52.1% / 29.8% / 21.6% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 51.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly undervalued the probability of a draw.
The Ligue 1 fixture between Nice and Le Havre concluded in a 1-1 draw. The **1x2 market** showed a significant **market inefficiency**, as Nice was priced as a strong favorite with a 52.08% implied win probability, while the draw was considerably undervalued at 29.76%. This presented a clear **EV+** opportunity for those betting on the draw. On the **Asian Handicap** (-0.5), Nice failed to cover, further confirming the overestimation of their winning chances by the closing line. The **Totals market** (O/U 2.5) correctly leaned towards the **under** (51.81% probability), aligning with the final score of 2 goals. The biggest value signal was on the draw, where the closing line offered considerable value.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +42.4% ROI on 18 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$1538.50.
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