Nantes1 - 1Stade Brestois 29
NantesWhy did AI enter 4 times at 25', 41', 45', 59' — and still finish +$3848?
Match Overview
Nantes hosted Stade Brestois 29 in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-1. Goals: Mostafa Mohamed (9'), B. Chardonnet (90'). Nantes received a red card (D. Tabibou, 65'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 4 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of +$3847.97 (ROI: +67.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.06 to 2.14; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.84 to 1.96; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.39 to 2.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Nantes leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Stade Brestois 29 -1 and Stade Brestois 29 -0.5. Average expected value was 43.1%, with a combined stake of $3741. The sharpest edge was on Stade Brestois 29 -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.0% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 41.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$4314.97. ### Wave 2 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Nantes leading 1-0 at 41'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Nantes. Average expected value was 4.9%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 45' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Nantes leading 1-0 at 45'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Nantes. Average expected value was 5.5%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 59' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Nantes leading 1-0 at 59'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$533.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Stade Brestois 29 -0.5: AI saw 79.0% vs market's 37.4% (41.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Stade Brestois 29 -0.5: AI saw 78.5% vs market's 37.4% (41.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Stade Brestois 29 -1: AI saw 94.0% vs market's 53.3% (40.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Stade Brestois 29 -1: AI saw 93.9% vs market's 53.3% (40.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$1929.38 (ROI: +67.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$1918.60 (ROI: +66.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 43%–57% in Nantes's deficit. Nantes had 15 shots (3 on target) versus Stade Brestois 29's 3 (2 on target). Expected goals: Nantes 0.71 — Stade Brestois 29 0.22. Corners: 8-0.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +67.0% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$1929.38.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 40.0% / 30.8% / 31.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 46.7% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 51.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market slightly undervalued the draw outcome.
The match between Nantes and Stade Brestois 29 concluded in a 1-1 draw. In the 1x2 market, the closing line implied a 30.77% probability for a draw. The actual outcome hitting this slightly undervalued probability indicates potential Closing Line Value (CLV) for bettors who identified the draw. For the Asian Handicap, Nantes was offered at -0.25. With the match ending level, Nantes failed to cover the spread, resulting in a losing bet for the favorite. The Totals (Over/Under 2.25 goals) market saw the Under correctly predicted with a 51.55% implied probability, as only two goals were scored. The market was efficient in assessing the low-scoring potential of this fixture.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +67.0% ROI on 8 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$1929.38.
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