Nantes3 - 0Marseille
NantesWhat the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 22.9% / 24.2% / 56.2% |
| Asian handicap | +0.75 | 50.0% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 52.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Severe undervaluation of Nantes' outright win.
Nantes secured a dominant 3-0 victory over Marseille. The 1x2 market significantly mispriced this fixture; Marseille was the clear favorite with an implied win probability of 56.18%, while Nantes' outright win was priced at a low 22.88%. The actual 3-0 home win represents substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) on Nantes for astute bettors. The Asian Handicap line closed at Marseille -0.75. Nantes, priced at +0.75, not only covered but blew past the spread with a convincing 3-goal margin, defying the market's expectation of a close contest or a Marseille victory. This indicates a strong value signal on the underdog. The Over/Under line was set at 3 goals. The match concluded with exactly 3 goals, resulting in a push for both Over and Under bets at this line. While the Over was marginally favored (52.36%), the market was relatively efficient on the total goals compared to the outright result. The market profoundly undervalued a Nantes outright win.
No entry signals — model found no valuable odds
Our AI analyzed Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets in real-time but did not detect sufficient edge.
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