Nantes0 - 1Angers
NantesWhat went wrong? 2 trades, $-400 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Nantes hosted Angers in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-1. Goals: A. Sbai (52'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-400.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.87 to 1.96; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.19 to 2.31.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 67' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Angers leading 0-1 at 67'. Nantes made 6 substitutions. 2 models (handicap_sniper_v8.1, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Angers +1. Average expected value was 11.1%, with a combined stake of $400. The sharpest edge was on Angers +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 54.5% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 11.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-400.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap Angers +1: AI saw 54.5% vs market's 43.5% (11.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap Angers +1: AI saw 54.5% vs market's 43.5% (11.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **handicap_sniper_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 48%–52% in Nantes's deficit. Nantes had 13 shots (3 on target) versus Angers's 11 (4 on target). Expected goals: Nantes 0.84 — Angers 0.66. Corners: 3-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: handicap_sniper_v8.1 at $-200.00.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-200.00.
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