Monaco

2 - 0

Stade Brestois 29

Monaco hosted Stade Brestois 29 in the Ligue 1, finishing 2-0. Goals: F. Balogun (19'), A. Golovin (78'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 5 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-643.28 (ROI: -10.7%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -1; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.81 to 1.89.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Monaco leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Stade Brestois 29 -1 and Monaco. Average expected value was 36.9%, with a combined stake of $2408. The sharpest edge was on Stade Brestois 29 -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.0% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 49.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting +$307.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Monaco leading 1-0 at 46'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Monaco and Stade Brestois 29 -0.5. Average expected value was 21.4%, with a combined stake of $1594. The sharpest edge was on Stade Brestois 29 -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.2% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 26.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-786.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 51' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Monaco leading 1-0 at 51'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Stade Brestois 29 0. Average expected value was 44.4%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Stade Brestois 29 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.6% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 42.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 54' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Monaco leading 1-0 at 54'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Stade Brestois 29 0. Average expected value was 44.4%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Stade Brestois 29 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.5% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 42.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 62' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Monaco leading 1-0 at 62'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Stade Brestois 29 -1.5. Average expected value was 44.6%, with a combined stake of $1013. The sharpest edge was on Stade Brestois 29 -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.2% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 42.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$835.72.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Stade Brestois 29 -1: AI saw 92.0% vs market's 42.1% (49.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Stade Brestois 29 -1: AI saw 91.9% vs market's 42.1% (49.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 62'** — Asian Handicap Stade Brestois 29 -1.5: AI saw 97.2% vs market's 54.8% (42.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Stade Brestois 29 0: AI saw 78.6% vs market's 36.4% (42.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Stade Brestois 29 0: AI saw 78.5% vs market's 36.4% (42.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, +$95.22 (ROI: +2.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-738.50 (ROI: -29.6%)

Possession was 57%–43% in Monaco's favor. Monaco had 10 shots (4 on target) versus Stade Brestois 29's 11 (1 on target). Expected goals: Monaco 2.36 — Stade Brestois 29 1.37. Corners: 3-8.