Monaco0 - 1Lille
MonacoWhy did AI enter 6 times at 0', 25', 32', 37', 63', 73' — and still finish +$874?
Match Overview
Monaco hosted Lille in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-1. Goals: D. Zakaria (72' OG). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 6 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of +$873.57 (ROI: +23.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 2.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.24 to 2.64.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3. Average expected value was 7.8%, with a combined stake of $228. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$193.80. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lille 0. Average expected value was 11.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Lille 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.1% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 9.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$775.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 32' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 32'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 7.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting $-250.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 37' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 37'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.7%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 63' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 63'. Monaco made 4 substitutions. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$266.50. ### Wave 6 — Minute 73' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Lille leading 0-1 at 73'. D. Zakaria scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Monaco +1. Average expected value was 25.9%, with a combined stake of $501. The sharpest edge was on Monaco +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.1% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 23.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$388.28.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 73'** — Asian Handicap Monaco +1: AI saw 80.1% vs market's 56.3% (23.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$542.27 (ROI: +27.1%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$193.80 (ROI: +85.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$137.50 (ROI: +9.2%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 55–45 in Monaco's favor. Monaco had 7 shots (3 on target) versus Lille's 6 (2 on target). Expected goals: Monaco 0.27 — Lille 0.3. Corners: 5-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +23.4% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$542.27.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 37.9% / 26.9% / 37.9% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 53.2% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The most significant market inefficiency was in the Totals market, where the Under 2.75 was an EV+ opportunity.
Monaco faced Lille, resulting in a 0:1 away victory for Lille. The 1x2 market priced Monaco and Lille as co-favorites, both with an implied win probability of 37.88%. Lille's 0:1 victory means the market's assessment of an equally contested match was accurate in the sense that Lille had a strong chance, but failed to identify a clear favorite. With an Asian handicap of 0, Lille's 1-0 win meant they successfully covered the spread. The market assigned a 51.02% probability for either side to cover their half of the 0-line, aligning with Lille's victory. However, the most significant inefficiency was found in the Totals market. The market heavily leaned towards the Over 2.75 goals, with a 53.19% implied probability. The match concluded with only 1 goal, resulting in an Under 2.75 outcome. This indicates the market significantly mispriced the low-scoring potential of this fixture, presenting a clear Value Signal on the Under.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +23.4% ROI on 8 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$542.27.
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