Monaco2 - 2Auxerre
MonacoWhy did AI enter 4 times at 25', 56', 69', 73' — and still finish +$7836?
Match Overview
Monaco hosted Auxerre in the Ligue 1, finishing 2-2. Goals: K. Danois (11'), L. Sinayoko (33'), A. Fati (56'), F. Balogun (58' pen), F. Balogun (59' pen). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 4 waves, achieving 76% precision with a net result of +$7835.67 (ROI: +85.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 1.96 to 1.97; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Auxerre leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Monaco -0.5. Average expected value was 10.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Monaco -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 51.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 8.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1350.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 56' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Auxerre leading 1-2 at 56'. A. Fati scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 3.5 and Monaco +1 and Auxerre 0 and Monaco +0.5 and Over 4.5 and Draw and Auxerre -0.5. Average expected value was 27.7%, with a combined stake of $6835. The sharpest edge was on Monaco +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.6% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 47.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** 9 of 13 trades won, netting +$5432.40. ### Wave 3 — Minute 69' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after F. Balogun's equalizer at 59'. Auxerre made 3 substitutions. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Auxerre -0.5. Average expected value was 23.0%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Auxerre -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.2% probability versus the market's implied 56.3% — a 20.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.775. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$387.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 73' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after F. Balogun's equalizer at 59'. Auxerre made 4 substitutions. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Auxerre -1. Average expected value was 44.4%, with a combined stake of $807. The sharpest edge was on Auxerre -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.0% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 42.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$665.78.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 58'** — Asian Handicap Monaco +0.5: AI saw 84.6% vs market's 37.4% (47.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Asian Handicap Monaco +1: AI saw 84.4% vs market's 40.0% (44.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 73'** — Asian Handicap Auxerre -1: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 54.8% (42.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Asian Handicap Monaco +1: AI saw 84.1% vs market's 48.8% (35.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 59'** — Over/Under Over 4.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 40.0% (30.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 9 trades, 7W/2L, +$4696.27 (ROI: +96.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 6W/2L, +$3139.40 (ROI: +73.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 69%–31% in Monaco's favor. Monaco had 15 shots (6 on target) versus Auxerre's 12 (7 on target). Expected goals: Monaco 2.3 — Auxerre 0.75. Corners: 10-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +85.7% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$4696.27.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 63.3% / 22.3% / 17.8% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 50.8% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 48.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Over 3 goals.
The match between Monaco and Auxerre concluded in a 2-2 draw, resulting in 4 total goals. The **1x2 market** significantly underestimated the probability of a draw, favoring a Monaco win at 63.29% compared to the actual outcome. In the **Asian Handicap** market, Monaco was set at -1 with a 50.76% probability to cover. However, Auxerre +1 comfortably covered, providing **Closing Line Value (CLV)**. The most striking market inefficiency was observed in the **Goals Over/Under market**. Despite the closing line suggesting a lean towards Under 3 goals (54.05% probability), the match produced 4 goals, strongly favoring **Over 3 goals**. This represents a clear **EV+ signal** against the market consensus.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +85.7% ROI on 17 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$4696.27.
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