Metz

3 - 4

Toulouse

Metz hosted Toulouse in the Ligue 1, finishing 3-4. Goals: A. Donnum (6'), A. Donnum (7'), Y. Gboho (14'), N. Mbala (30'), K. Kouao (31'), Y. Gboho (45'), G. Abuashvili (88'), M. Sauer (90'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 3 waves, achieving 88% precision with a net result of +$7918.10 (ROI: +79.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.91; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.95 to 4.12.

### Wave 1 — Minute 30' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Toulouse leading 1-2 at 30'. N. Mbala scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Metz +1.5 and Toulouse and Metz +1 and Metz +0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 22.1%, with a combined stake of $6734. The sharpest edge was on Metz +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.7% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 31.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** 8 of 10 trades won, netting +$4534.85. ### Wave 2 — Minute 46' (Score: 2-3) **Context:** Toulouse leading 2-3 at 46'. Y. Gboho scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Toulouse and Metz +1 and Metz +0.5 and Over 5.5. Average expected value was 26.2%, with a combined stake of $2286. The sharpest edge was on Toulouse (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 79.0% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 33.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$2383.25. ### Wave 3 — Minute 49' (Score: 2-3) **Context:** Toulouse leading 2-3 at 49'. Y. Gboho scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 5.5. Average expected value was 22.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 5.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 20.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1000.00.

- **Minute 46'** — Moneyline Toulouse: AI saw 79.0% vs market's 45.5% (33.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Metz +1.5: AI saw 89.7% vs market's 58.0% (31.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Metz +1.5: AI saw 89.7% vs market's 58.0% (31.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 31'** — Moneyline Toulouse: AI saw 76.9% vs market's 48.8% (28.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 31'** — Asian Handicap Metz +1: AI saw 66.2% vs market's 38.5% (27.7pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 5W/1L, +$2921.78 (ROI: +72.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 5W/1L, +$2613.07 (ROI: +70.2%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$2383.25 (ROI: +104.3%)

Possession was 51%–49% in Metz's favor. Metz had 16 shots (7 on target) versus Toulouse's 17 (4 on target). Expected goals: Metz 1.6 — Toulouse 1.01. Corners: 4-4.