Metz1 - 3Paris FC
MetzWhy did AI enter 5 times at 25', 28', 32', 37', 41' — and still finish +$3164?
Match Overview
Metz hosted Paris FC in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-3. Goals: A. Gory (21'), G. Kvilitaia (31'), Otavio (69'), I. Kebbal (89'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 5 waves, achieving 60% precision with a net result of +$3164.00 (ROI: +40.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 2 to 1.95; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline shortened from 3.39 to 3.27.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Paris FC leading 0-1 at 25'. A. Gory scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Metz +0.5 and Paris FC. Average expected value was 27.3%, with a combined stake of $2165. The sharpest edge was on Paris FC (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 73.9% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 30.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$514.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Paris FC leading 0-1 at 28'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Metz +1. Average expected value was 13.5%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Metz +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.3% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 11.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 32' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after G. Kvilitaia's equalizer at 31'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Paris FC +0.5. Average expected value was 4.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1350.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 37' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after G. Kvilitaia's equalizer at 31'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 3.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 9.2%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 37.1% probability versus the market's implied 23.1% — a 14.0 percentage point gap at odds of 4.333. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting $-250.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after G. Kvilitaia's equalizer at 31'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Paris FC 0 and Over 2.5. Average expected value was 19.7%, with a combined stake of $2175. The sharpest edge was on Paris FC 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.6% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 20.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1549.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Paris FC: AI saw 73.9% vs market's 43.5% (30.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Metz +0.5: AI saw 61.6% vs market's 37.4% (24.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Metz +0.5: AI saw 62.2% vs market's 38.5% (23.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Paris FC 0: AI saw 79.6% vs market's 58.8% (20.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Paris FC 0: AI saw 79.6% vs market's 58.8% (20.8pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 5W/2L/1V, +$2018.40 (ROI: +48.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/2L/1V, +$1145.60 (ROI: +31.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 51%–49% in Metz's favor. Metz had 10 shots (5 on target) versus Paris FC's 13 (7 on target). Expected goals: Metz 0.86 — Paris FC 1.3. Corners: 4-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +40.4% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2018.40.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 30.6% / 28.1% / 44.0% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 50.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 49.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the 'Over 2.75 Goals' line.
In the Ligue 1 clash between Metz and Paris FC, which concluded 1:3, OddsFlow AI identified a clear Market Inefficiency in the Totals market. The 1x2 market correctly identified Paris FC as the favorite, and their 3-1 victory validated this. For the Asian Handicap, Paris FC was priced to cover a -0.25 line, and their commanding win by a 2-goal margin easily covered it, despite the market slightly leaning towards Metz (+0.25) to cover. However, the most glaring error was in the Goals Over/Under market. The closing line for total goals was set at 2.75, with the market leaning towards the Under at a 53.19% implied probability. The match, however, exploded for 4 goals, making the Over 2.75 a significant EV+ signal that was mispriced by bookmakers. This demonstrates a strong Closing Line Value opportunity for the Over.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +40.4% ROI on 15 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2018.40.
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