Metz0 - 0Nantes
MetzWhy did AI enter 4 times at 25', 33', 72', 91' — and still finish +$3500?
Match Overview
Metz hosted Nantes in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-0. Goals: G. Hein (90'). Nantes received a red card (T. Tati, 39'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 4 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$3500.00 (ROI: +94.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2.02 to 2.06; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.89 to 1.94.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Nantes 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 13.4%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Nantes 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.0% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 14.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** 1 of 4 trades won, netting +$1000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 33' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 33'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$2100.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 72' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 72'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Metz -0.25. Average expected value was 2.1%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 91' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 91'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 13.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Nantes 0: AI saw 69.0% vs market's 54.8% (14.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Nantes 0: AI saw 68.1% vs market's 54.8% (13.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Nantes 0: AI saw 68.0% vs market's 54.8% (13.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 91'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 63.0% vs market's 50.0% (13.0pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/0L/2V, +$2100.00 (ROI: +105.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$1000.00 (ROI: +100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$400.00 (ROI: +57.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 66%–34% in Metz's favor. Metz had 19 shots (5 on target) versus Nantes's 6 (2 on target). Expected goals: Metz 2.17 — Nantes 0.46. Corners: 6-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +94.6% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$2100.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 34.6% / 30.4% / 38.3% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 51.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Under 2.25 goals was a significant value bet.
The Ligue 1 clash between Metz and Nantes concluded in a 0-0 stalemate, exposing significant market inefficiencies. The 1x2 market slightly favored Nantes, assigning a mere 30.4% probability to a draw, which ultimately proved to be the correct outcome. However, the most striking mispricing occurred in the Goals Over/Under market. Despite a closing line of 2.25 goals being balanced with 51.55% probability for both Over and Under, the match produced 0 goals. This represents a substantial Closing Line Value for Under 2.25 backers, indicating a strong EV+ opportunity missed by the broader market.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +94.6% ROI on 8 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$2100.00.
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