Metz0 - 4Lorient
MetzWhy did AI enter 6 times at 0', 15', 25', 42', 48', 66' — and still finish +$558?
Match Overview
Metz hosted Lorient in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-4. Goals: J. Makengo (24'), B. Dieng (84'), N. Cadiou (90'), A. Avom (90'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 6 waves, achieving 54% precision with a net result of +$557.59 (ROI: +8.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.81 to 1.94; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 1.94 to 1.86; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.92 to 3.16.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Lorient. Average expected value was 25.3%, with a combined stake of $498. The sharpest edge was on Lorient (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 55.2% probability versus the market's implied 44.1% — a 11.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.27. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$632.46. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lorient 0. Average expected value was 22.3%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Lorient 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.2% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 20.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$150.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Lorient and Lorient 0 and Under 3.5 and Metz +0.5. Average expected value was 18.4%, with a combined stake of $4210. The sharpest edge was on Lorient 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.5% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 22.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** 4 of 7 trades won, netting +$1008.63. ### Wave 4 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Lorient leading 0-1 at 42'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 8.7%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 50.0% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 6.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 48' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Lorient leading 0-1 at 48'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Metz +1. Average expected value was 13.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Metz +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 14.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 66' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Lorient leading 0-1 at 66'. Lorient made 6 substitutions. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$266.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Lorient 0: AI saw 77.5% vs market's 55.6% (22.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Lorient 0: AI saw 78.2% vs market's 58.0% (20.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Lorient 0: AI saw 77.2% vs market's 57.1% (20.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Metz +0.5: AI saw 59.8% vs market's 40.0% (19.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Under 3.5: AI saw 79.6% vs market's 60.0% (19.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$632.46 (ROI: +127.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$150.00 (ROI: +75.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, +$55.93 (ROI: +1.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-280.80 (ROI: -9.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 54–46 in Metz's favor. Metz had 8 shots (2 on target) versus Lorient's 12 (5 on target). Expected goals: Metz 0.45 — Lorient 1.89. Corners: 7-4.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +8.1% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at +$632.46.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 31.6% / 27.0% / 44.3% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 51.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 53.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Asian Handicap market significantly undervalued Lorient's potential to dominate, presenting strong EV+ on Lorient -0.25.
The match between Metz and Lorient concluded with a decisive 0-4 victory for Lorient. The 1x2 market correctly identified Lorient as the favorite with a 44.25% implied probability, aligning with the actual outcome. In the Asian Handicap market, Lorient was set at -0.25, but the market slightly favored Metz to cover their +0.25 line with 51.55% probability. Lorient's dominant 4-goal win, however, easily covered their -0.25 line, highlighting a significant mispricing and generating substantial Closing Line Value (CLV). The Over/Under market, with a line of 2.75 goals, correctly leaned towards the 'Over' (53.76% implied probability), as the match produced 4 goals. The most notable market inefficiency was found in the Asian Handicap, where the market significantly underestimated Lorient's capacity for a comprehensive victory.
A positive result with +8.1% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$557.59. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at +$632.46.
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