Metz0 - 0Lille
MetzWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-166 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Metz hosted Lille in the Ligue 1, finishing 0-0. Goals: A. Toure (18'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-166.23 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
Pre-match odds showed minimal movement.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 57' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 57'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lille +0.75. Average expected value was 5.5%, with a combined stake of $166. The sharpest edge was on Lille +0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.3% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 5.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-166.23.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-166.23 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 42%–58% in Metz's deficit. Metz had 5 shots (1 on target) versus Lille's 14 (0 on target). Expected goals: Metz 0.29 — Lille 1.41. Corners: 1-5.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 15.9% / 22.9% / 64.5% |
| Asian handicap | +1 | 52.1% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 51.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant Value on Under 2.75 Goals
The Ligue 1 fixture between Metz and Lille concluded in a 0-0 draw. The 1x2 market heavily favored Lille for a win with an implied probability of 64.52%, indicating a significant mispricing given the actual goalless draw outcome. In the Asian Handicap market, the line was set at 1, with Lille -1 slightly favored at 52.08% to cover. However, Metz +1 successfully covered, again demonstrating a deviation from market expectation. The most pronounced market inefficiency was observed in the **Totals (Over/Under) market**. Despite the closing line set at 2.75 goals with an even 51.28% probability split for both Over and Under, the match produced 0 goals. This stark contrast signifies substantial **Closing Line Value (CLV)** and an **EV+** opportunity for those who identified the **Under 2.75 goals** bet.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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