Marseille3 - 1Rennes
MarseilleWhy did AI enter 3 times at 0', 37', 59' — and still finish +$825?
Match Overview
Marseille hosted Rennes in the Ligue 1, finishing 3-1. Goals: P. Hojbjerg (2'), A. Gouiri (10'), P. Aubameyang (55'), E. Lepaul (84'). OddsFlow deployed 11 trades across 3 waves, achieving 82% precision with a net result of +$825.39 (ROI: +96.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 2.07 to 2.04; the Over/Under line shifted from 3 to 3.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Rennes. Average expected value was 44.2%, with a combined stake of $37. The sharpest edge was on Rennes (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 43.3% probability versus the market's implied 29.3% — a 14.0 percentage point gap at odds of 3.41. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-37.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 37' (Score: 2-0) **Context:** Marseille leading 2-0 at 37'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 34.9%, with a combined stake of $550. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.2% probability versus the market's implied 48.5% — a 21.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.06. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$571.72. ### Wave 3 — Minute 59' (Score: 3-0) **Context:** Marseille leading 3-0 at 59'. P. Aubameyang scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 4.5. Average expected value was 35.6%, with a combined stake of $273. The sharpest edge was on Under 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 69.1% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 20.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$290.67.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 37'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 70.2% vs market's 48.5% (21.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 70.2% vs market's 48.5% (21.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 59'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 69.1% vs market's 48.3% (20.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 59'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 69.1% vs market's 48.5% (20.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 59'** — Over/Under Under 4.5: AI saw 69.1% vs market's 48.5% (20.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$294.16 (ROI: +103.9%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$290.67 (ROI: +106.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$277.56 (ROI: +104.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-37.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 45–55 in Marseille's deficit. Marseille had 27 shots (11 on target) versus Rennes's 24 (5 on target). Expected goals: Marseille 3.01 — Rennes 2.39. Corners: 4-10.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +96.0% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$294.16.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 49.3% / 24.3% / 29.2% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 52.9% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Marseille's ability to cover the -0.5 Asian Handicap.
Marseille secured a decisive 3-1 victory over Rennes. In the 1x2 market, the closing line correctly identified Marseille as the slight favorite, aligning with the eventual home win. However, the most notable market inefficiency emerged in the Asian Handicap sector. Despite Marseille successfully covering their -0.5 handicap with a two-goal winning margin, the market's implied probability for Marseille to cover was only 49.02%, while Rennes to cover their +0.5 (or Marseille not to cover) was 52.91%. This represents a clear Value Signal on Marseille -0.5. The Totals market (O/U 3.5) saw 4 goals, hitting the Over. The market leaned slightly towards the Over with 51.81% probability, demonstrating moderate accuracy.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +96.0% ROI on 11 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$294.16.
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