Marseille1 - 1Nice
MarseilleWhy did AI enter 5 times at 25', 32', 53', 69', 80' — and still finish +$5750?
Match Overview
Marseille hosted Nice in the Ligue 1, finishing 1-1. Goals: P. Hojbjerg (66'), E. Wahi (87' pen), E. Wahi (88' pen). OddsFlow deployed 18 trades across 5 waves, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$5750.25 (ROI: +63.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.25 to -1; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.46 to 1.58.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Nice -0.5 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 10.5%, with a combined stake of $2500. The sharpest edge was on Nice -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 54.0% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 9.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$2490.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 32' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 32'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Draw and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 6.9%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 49.6% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 6.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 3 of 6 trades won, netting +$1000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 53'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.7%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$937.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 69' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Marseille leading 1-0 at 69'. P. Hojbjerg scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Nice -1. Average expected value was 62.7%, with a combined stake of $1613. The sharpest edge was on Nice -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 96.9% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 60.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2822.75. ### Wave 5 — Minute 80' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Marseille leading 1-0 at 80'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Marseille. Average expected value was 33.6%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Marseille (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 32.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Nice -1: AI saw 96.9% vs market's 36.4% (60.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Nice -1: AI saw 97.0% vs market's 36.4% (60.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 69'** — Asian Handicap Nice -1: AI saw 96.7% vs market's 36.4% (60.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 80'** — Moneyline Marseille: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 47.6% (32.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 80'** — Moneyline Marseille: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 47.6% (32.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1999.00 (ROI: +65.8%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1943.25 (ROI: +63.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1808.00 (ROI: +59.6%)
Match Statistics
Marseille had 19 shots (5 on target) versus Nice's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +63.1% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$1999.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 63.3% / 22.4% / 18.0% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 50.8% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 50.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant undervaluation of the draw in the 1X2 market.
The match between Marseille and Nice concluded in a 1-1 draw, a result that sharply diverged from the market's pre-match expectations. In the 1X2 market, Marseille was heavily favored with an implied win probability of 63.29%. However, the actual outcome, a draw, had a closing market probability of only 22.37%, indicating a clear **market inefficiency** and significant **Closing Line Value (CLV)** on the draw. For the Asian Handicap set at Marseille -1, the market was finely balanced, with a slight lean towards Nice covering (+1) at 51.28%. The draw meant Marseille failed to cover, validating the slight market lean on Nice +1. In the Goals Over/Under market, with a line of 3, the market correctly leaned towards the Under (51.81%), as the match produced only 2 goals. The biggest error was undoubtedly the market's underestimation of the draw outcome in the 1X2.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +63.1% ROI on 18 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$1999.00.
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