Marseille3 - 1Metz
MarseilleWhy did AI enter 3 times at 28', 36', 49' — and still finish +$4872?
Match Overview
Marseille hosted Metz in the Ligue 1, finishing 3-1. Goals: P. Aubameyang (13'), I. Paixao (48'), G. Tsitaishvili (49'), H. J. Traore (90'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 3 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$4872.35 (ROI: +143.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1.75 but home odds shifted from 1.97 to 1.88; the Over/Under line shifted from 3.25 to 3.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 28' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Marseille leading 1-0 at 28'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Metz -1.5. Average expected value was 25.3%, with a combined stake of $527. The sharpest edge was on Metz -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 68.1% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 22.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$632.40. ### Wave 2 — Minute 36' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Marseille leading 1-0 at 36'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Metz -1.5. Average expected value was 30.5%, with a combined stake of $635. The sharpest edge was on Metz -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 73.3% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 27.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$762.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 49' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Marseille leading 1-0 at 49'. G. Tsitaishvili scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Metz -1.5 and Over 3.5. Average expected value was 35.3%, with a combined stake of $2240. The sharpest edge was on Metz -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 42.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$3477.95.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 49'** — Asian Handicap Metz -1.5: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 37.4% (42.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 40.0% (30.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 40.0% (30.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 50'** — Over/Under Over 3.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 40.0% (30.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Metz -1.5: AI saw 73.3% vs market's 45.5% (27.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1878.95 (ROI: +160.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1561.50 (ROI: +133.7%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1431.90 (ROI: +135.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 54%–46% in Marseille's favor. Marseille had 18 shots (9 on target) versus Metz's 6 (2 on target). Expected goals: Marseille 2.78 — Metz 0.49. Corners: 7-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +143.2% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$1878.95.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 80.0% / 15.0% / 8.9% |
| Asian handicap | -1.75 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 3.5 | 49.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Over/Under 3.5 goals market was inefficient, leaning Under when the match went Over.
Marseille defeated Metz 3-1. The 1x2 market accurately priced Marseille as strong favorites at an implied 80% probability, which aligned with the home victory. In the Handicap market, Marseille successfully covered the -1.75 line with their 2-goal margin, confirming the market's slight lean towards them covering (53.19% probability). However, the most notable market inefficiency was observed in the Totals (Over/Under) market. Despite the closing line favoring Under 3.5 goals (53.48% probability), the match saw 4 goals, resulting in the Over hitting. This indicates a clear mispricing by the bookmakers on the total goals.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +143.2% ROI on 6 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$1878.95.
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